Russian support for Syria: Why?

10 February 2012, 18:00 PM

Barrister Harun ur Rashid

Syrian regime supporters thank Russia for voting to block a UN Security Council resolution condemning Syria for its brutal crackdown. Photo: Muzaffar Salman/ AP

The head of the Arab League and the prime minister of Qatar urged the UN Security Council on January 31, 2012 to take swift action to stem the escalating violence in Syria and to endorse an Arab plan for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to give up power. Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby urged the Council to take "rapid and decisive action" while Qatari prime minister warned the 15-nation body that Syria's "killing machine is still at work." Elaraby added that Arab nations are attempting to avoid foreign military intervention in the 10-month-old Syrian crisis, a point the Qatari prime minister also emphasized. He suggested the council should use economic leverage instead. Earlier, Syria's government has firmly rejected a call from Qatar for Arab troops to be deployed in the country to end the deadly crackdown on protesters. A Syrian foreign ministry statement said such a move would "worsen the crisis... and pave the way for foreign intervention. The Syrian people... will oppose any attempt to undermine the sovereignty of Syria and the integrity of its territory. It would be regrettable for Arab blood to flow on Syria's territory to serve known [interests]," the statement added, without elaborating. President Bashar al-Assad has blamed a "foreign conspiracy" for the 10-month uprising, and officials say "armed gangs and terrorists" have killed 2,000 security forces personnel. The BBC's Jonathan Head, who is in neighbouring Turkey, says the Arab League is divided over what to do, and in any case has little experience of forming a multi-national peacekeeping force. Such a force would also need either an invitation from the Syrian government, or the approval of the UN Security Council and neither is likely. At the UN Security Council, Britain, the US, France, Germany, Portugal and Morocco drafted a revised resolution which called for a "Syrian-led political transition to a democratic and plural political system." When it was put to vote on February 4 at the Council, Russia and China vetoed it. Mohammed Loulichki, Morocco's ambassador to the UN and the sole Arab member of the current Security Council, voiced "great regret and disappointment" that Moscow and Beijing had struck it down. The Arab draft- resolution was however supported by all 13 other members of the Security Council. Russia explained its veto by saying that the resolution was unbalanced and singled out the government of President Assad, and did not contain measures against armed opposition groups. Russia further said that "it is determined to seek the soonest possible stabilization of the situation in Syria on the way toward pressing democratic transformations." It sought to characterize its veto not as support for the Assad government but as the expression of a more balanced position on the conflict. China's top newspapers have defended Beijing's veto of a UN resolution and said the Western push for a regime change in Syria was erroneous, citing previous campaigns in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. On February 6, The China Daily newspaper wrote in its editorial : "by only exerting pressure on the Syrian government and explicitly trying to coerce its leader Assad to step down, the resolution sends the message to armed groups and opponents of his regime that they have the support of the international community. This will undoubtedly make the Syrian situation even more complicated." Since the beginning of 2005, Russian-Syrian relations appear to have undergone a dramatic improvement. President Bashar al-Assad visited Moscow and met with Putin in January 2005, his first visit since becoming Syria's president in mid-2000. On that occasion, it was announced that Moscow had agreed to write off 73% percent of Syria's $13.4 billion debt to Russia. Moreover, as Vremya novostei noted, Moscow allowed Damascus to repay the rest of the loan on terms extremely favorable to Syria. In addition, Russia agreed to sell to Syria the Strelets air defense missile system, which includes vehicle-mounted short range surface-to-air missiles. According to a Kommersant commentator, this deal was worth up to $100 million. Russia values the Assad regime's position regarding Chechnya. Syria does not support the Chechen rebels. Indeed, Chechnya's Moscow-backed president was received both by Assad and his prime minister in Damascus in September 2005. Furthermore, Russian support depends on other factors some of which deserve mention as follows: * Russia needs an access to the Mediterranean Sea through Syria. Tartus, a Syrian port on the Mediterranean Sea, is an ideal sea port for Russia which garrisons Moscow's growing Mediterranean fleet. * Russian arms sales to Syria continues and currently worth $4 billion including fighter jets and advanced missiles. * Russia has large commercial interests in Syria and it invested about $20 billion in energy, infrastructure and tourism. A natural gas processing plant is being constructed in Syria. * Through Syria, Moscow is a player in the Middle East and maintains its influences in the region as global power. Syria also offers Moscow the chance to counter the West's influence in the Middle East. Given the background Russia has given total support to Syria at the UN even when Syrian regime is becoming isolated from the Arab League. Meanwhile Iran's supreme leader Ayotollah Ali Khamenei reportedly warned against the "US interference" in the internal affairs of Syria. As pressure on Assad grows, Tehran feels the pinch because the Syria-Iran axis provides access to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and opposes the presence of the US in the region. The uprising in Syria has caused extreme discomfort to Hamas and on January 27, Khaled Meshal, Hamas' supreme leader, left Damascus with no plans to return. Moscow also understands that while both the United States and Israel have little love for Bashar Assad, their fear that he will be overthrown and replaced by a worse regime give them both some interest in Moscow helping to prop him up. For if Assad's regime begins to falter, there is little that Russia or any other country may be able to do to prevent it from falling. Furthermore, if an Islamic fundamentalist regime does replace Assad's, American, Israeli, and Russian interests will all suffer. The writer is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.