Pakistan's 'Memogate': An orchestration?
Photo: indianpressmedia
Pakistan has become a country of endless climaxes because it seems that the twists and turns will never end. Since the Abottabad incident, political inconsistency in Pakistan has become a consistent phenomenon. Sometimes it seems that Pakistan is still haunted by the spectre of Osama bin Laden. However, it does not mean that before Abottabad incident there had been a persistent peaceful political ambiance in Pakistan. The recent political crisis in Pakistan is evolving centering 'Memogate' scandal. 'Memogate' is a secret memorandum which was allegedly delivered to Admiral Michael Mullen, then the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, requesting the US intervention in the event of a military coup against Pakistan's elected government. The memo promised that Pakistan would allow the US input on a revamp of the country's national security set-up, and that it would eliminate Sections of the country's powerful Inter Services Intelligence agency, which allegedly is responsible for the ISI's links with the Taliban. After knowing this secret activity the army got infuriated that finally resulted in involving the Supreme Court which served a notice over inaction in graft case of President Asif Ali Zardari. But the present situation is unprecedented because of several reasons. The most important reason is the existing strained relationship with the US. The US killed Osama Bin Laden violating Pakistan's sovereignty. Last November the US led Nato strike killed twenty four Pakistani troops in Northern Pakistan which finally resulted in a halt on Nato supply line to Afghanistan via Pakistan and forced the US to pullleave from Shamasi airbase in Kharan, Pakistan. In January, President Obama signed a bill to give bar on aiding Pakistan as a measure of tit for tat. Another important reason is a better strong position of various democratic institutions like- media, Supreme Court and stronger opposition parties in today's Pakistan. The 'memogate' scandal may bring a shuffle in Pakistan government. But here I shall not view the scandal to understand the national politics of Pakistan rather will dissect the issue to understand its implication with external dimensions. It may create a very tricky option for the US to exploit divisions in Pakistan politics and force Pakistan to come into terms. It is a historically proven truth that the civil-military relation in Pakistan is always at a daggers drawn. But in most of the cases the relationship was influenced or shaped by the external factors. However, the official relationship between Pakistan and the US set back after the Nato strikes. Since then, both the government and military are maintaining a clandestine relationship, because both the two organisation's existence depends upon Washington's positive nod. An obedient Pakistan is also important for the US. To bring stability in Afghanistan and maintaining counterterrorism effort in South Asia and uprooting insurgency from this region, a stable Pakistan is a precondition. The US cannot afford to let Pakistan run alone. In an updated research, conducted by The Nuclear Threat Initiative, in a project led by former US Senator Sam Nunn and the Economist Intelligence Unit, it is found that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are at most risk just after North Korea. 'Memogate' scandal will finally bring one party, either the government or the armed force , closer to the US. And then the US will utilise this weak point to enforce Pakistan to cow tow to its demand. From this point of view no one can deny the possibilities of orchestration from the US to exploit 'Memogate' to its own benefit.
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