Is China nervous as Myanmar looks west?
Photo: Globaltimes.com
A series of reforms by Myanmar's President, Thein Sein, a former prime minister and general in a previous military junta, have caught most Myanmar-watchers by surprise. In late September, a senior official of Myanmar wrote a newspaper article urging foreign countries to be patient with President Thein Sein as he tried to resolve deeply entrenched political, economic and social problems while keeping at bay military hardliners unhappy with the reform program."If Western countries continue to keep sanctions and even impose more it will only force Myanmar closer to China," the official warned. We do not want our country to become a satellite state of the Chinese government. "Western countries should not force us into a corner where we have no option but to increasingly reply on China." On 30th November, United States Secretary of State arrived at the capital city Nay Pyi Taw, 460 km north of Yangon (Rangoon). This is the first visit to Myanmar by a US Secretary of State since 1955. On 1st December, Burmese President Thein Sein has hailed a "new chapter" in relations with the US during talks with Hillary Clinton in the capital, Your Excellency's visit will be historic and a new chapter in relations and her visit would prove to be a "milestone". Thein Sein said before the start of the closed-door meeting. Mrs Clinton sought an assurance from Myanmar leaders they were not receiving nuclear technologies from North Korea and wanted them to agree to more vigorous inspections by the International Atomic Energy. In May a US Navy destroyer intercepted a North Korean ship destined for Myanmar in the South China Sea that was believed to be carrying missile parts. Clinton challenged Burma's leaders to expand their reforms, offering the prospect of upgraded diplomatic relations and some rewards if they respond. She declared to ease restrictions on developmental aid by multilateral financial institutions to the country. Clinton has raised US concerns about continuing ethnic conflicts in border areas where multiple armed groups were demanding autonomy.It says many civilians have been killed. "While the situation in lowland Myanmar is being interpreted as a major breakthrough, the situation for millions in the ethnic areas is worse than it's been in two decades," the organisation's Oddny Gumaer said. On 2nd December, she met pro-democracy opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi at her home and had a private one-to-one dinner at Yangon. Clinton said that her meeting with Suu Kyi was itself a measure of the changes that swept Myanmar since the new President took office. Suu Kyi endorsed the new US engagement with the Myanmar government and called on other countries including China to support the reforms to build a freer, more open society and economy. Clinton's three-day visit has not only opened isolated Myanmar to intense international scrutiny but has placed the country at the centre of the competing regional interests of the US and China.The gentler face of Myanmar has helped win it a measure confidence among foreign investors. It is reported that Yangon's 170 or so hotels are filled with potential investors. The country is seeking to privatise its railways and sell-off state-owned real estate including a dozen old government buildings in Yangon. China's worry Relations between China and Myanmar have waxed and waned since 1960s when the military took over in 1962. In mid-60s, Myanmar leaders were suspicious when China was trying to foment a Cultural Revolution-style in Myanmar. Myanmar is China's biggest economic partner and the two countries did $5.3 billion of trade last year. China has been the biggest foreign investor in the country, with $15.8 billion worth of investments. Chinese other interests in Myanmar include oil, and natural gas, pipelines that are now under construction, access to the Indian Ocean. The population of many northern cities, such as Mandalay, is estimated to be 40% per cent Chinese. Given the warm relations with Myanmar, China was stunned when the President suspended on 30th September a controversial Chinese-backed hydro-electric dam project on Irrawardy River in northern Kachin State, saying the decision was to "respect the will of the people". It is reported that 90% per cent of the electricity generated at the Myitsone dam was to go across the border to China and Chinese investors have poured $US3.6 billion into the project. Chinese state media has reacted furiously to Mrs Clinton's visit to Myanmar. The Global Times, which often runs nationalistic editorials, warned the US not to impinge on China's interests. "China has no resistance toward Myanmar [Burma] seeking improved relationship with the West, but it will not accept this while seeing its interests stamped on," said a comment piece in the paper. There is a view that many Chinese businesspeople think that they will gain from Myanmar opening up to the rest of the world in terms of better business environment. It is reported that although Chinese influence in Myanmar is dominant, many observers believe that there is no special political dislike of China or Chinese culture in Myanmar. Rather there is the sense of the dangers of being next to an increasingly powerful neighbour and the most populous nation. It is like sleeping with an elephant, how friendly and even tempered the animal is, one is affected by every twitch and grunt. Nay Zin Latt, a political adviser to Thein Sein, says the President is seeking to reconcile with political opponents in order to expand the economy and encourage the West to reduce sanctions that have hurt the country's poor. Finally the reforms have impressed fellow Asean countries which have decided at the Bali Summit in November to elect Myanmar as the chairman of Asean in 2014. One of the jobs as chairman will be to guide the organisation's implementation of its plans for a single market. Observers believe that before 2014, Myanmar wants both political and economic reforms take place steadily and firmly.
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