Afghanistan stabilisation: Post US withdrawal

18 November 2011, 18:00 PM

Barrister Harun ur Rashid

Photo: AFP

ON 1st November, Turkey's President Abdullah Gul has hosted a two-day international conference on Afghanistan. The conference would lead up to different peace processes, including the Bonn Conference on Afghanistan next month and the Chicago conference in January next year. A fellow Muslim country and a NATO member, Turkey has had strong historical ties with both countries and has sought to encourage confidence-building measures among neighbours and extended neighbours. The conference has focused on :
* building up trust among regional and Central Asian countries for greater cooperation in the field of security * the future of international involvement in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of NATO troops in 2014, even though some foreign troops will remain as trainers and advisers. Many Afghan political leaders fear their own security forces will be unable to cope with the insurgency when the majority of foreign troops go and that their country may fall into another civil war. Afghanistan, which argues that militancy and drug trafficking are cross-border problems that need cross-border solutions, wanted legally binding security commitments to be made in Istanbul by all stake holders. However, Kabul had to concede that only a non-binding, watered-down agreement would be possible. The Pentagon says insurgents abetted by Pakistan pose the big threat to US-led forces in Afghanistan, and several high-profile attacks in Kabul were carried out by the Al Qaeda-linked Haqqani network, based in eastern Afghanistan and Pakistan. Such threats were underscored again on 29th October when a suicide bomber in Kabul killed 13 troops and civilian employees from the NATO-led force, as well as four Afghansthe deadliest single ground attack against the coalition in 10 years. The often tense relationship between Washington and Islamabad aside, platitudes from Pakistan about meeting will not change the situation in Afghanistan. The tense relations between Pakistan and the US had further deteriorated, while there was an ongoing tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Play of Geo-politics
Geo-politics plays a key role in Afghanistan which has six neighbours and is sandwiched between Iran and Pakistan in the west and east, and obviously the two neighbours are doing their utmost to exert their influence to Afghanistan "Regional cooperation is crucial not just for achieving long-desired security, stability and prosperity for the people of Afghanistan ... but also in the wider region," said Afghan deputy foreign minister Jawed Ludin, addressing diplomats before closed-door talks in the run-up to the Istanbul meeting. Regional heavyweight Pakistan would be crucial to any cross-border security initiative. It also harbors modest ambitions. "We envisage this conference as a platform to express the region's solidarity and support for Afghanistan in its endeavors to establish peace and stability," Pakistani foreign ministry spokeswoman Tehmina Janjua said in a weekly briefing. The Afghan and Pakistani intelligence services have a long history of mistrust. There have been frequent accusations the Pakistan military has backed Taliban militants in the hope of regaining influence in Kabul once Western forces withdraw. Both India and Afghanistan have troubled relationships with Pakistan, accusing it of supporting and sheltering militant leaders who orchestrate attacks in the region. The growing closeness between the two countries has infuriated Islamabad, which also wants to increase its influence in Afghanistan. But the Afghan-Indian relationship has raised concern in Islamabad, where the government and military establishment has long considered Afghanistan its own strategic asset to offset the perceived threat from India in the east Pakistani generals have long feared India could obtain more influence in Afghanistan, raising the specter of encirclement. Pakistan does not want to be sandwiched between pro-Indian Afghanistan and India for strategic reasons. Afghanistan can be considered a country of minorities as there is no group serving as a majority. Rather, Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group followed by Tajiks as the second largest group, then Hazaras, Uzbeks tied for third, followed by the Aimak, Turkmen, Baluch, Nuristani and other small groups. Unity among them is imperative. Suffering of people
More than 1 million registered Afghans reportedly live in Iran. Another 1.5 million or more undocumented, unregistered Afghan refugees may also reside in that country. Some 1.7 million or more Afghan refugees currently live in Pakistan. As of the middle of 2010, the number of displaced Afghan people had reportedly increased to more than 328,000. Almost 10 years on, just what are the lives of ordinary Afghans like? Poverty indices from childhood mortality figures, just about every available measure of Afghan wellbeing paint a grim picture of a persistent state of humanitarian crisis.. Analysts say any measurement affecting ordinary Afghans and the record since November 2001 when Kabul fell to Allied forces is likely to show stagnation or setbacks and, almost invariably, suffering. The United Nations ranks countries via a Human Development Index which includes such indicators of well being as life expectancy, educational attainment, and income. In 2009, when the UN issued a new Human Development Report, Afghanistan was in worse shape than before, ranking number 181 of 182 nations, higher only than Niger. Between 2001 and 2009, according to the Afghan government, the country has received $36 billion in grants and loans from donor nations, with the United States disbursing some $23 billion of it. U.S. taxpayers have anted up another $338 billion to fund the war and occupation. The Karzai government is known to be corrupt and money is pouring into the warlords for their lavish style living. His brother Wali Karzai was so unpopular and corrupt in business deals that he was assassinated by his bodyguards. Furthermore, Karzai has kept all the powers for decision in a mountainous country where decentralization of power is the way to run the country. If the participating leaders agree on the roadmap leading toward a meaningful regional security dialogue and application of security-building measures on a regional level, that will be a success by itself. In Afghanistan, services, such as, electricity, water, food, health care, justice, and jobs count for Afghan people. That means good governance with the funds received from donors. The question is whether President Karzai will be able to mitigate the grievances of Afghan people by delivering adequate services to them? For ordinary Afghans the Istanbul conference will have meaning if their fate and quality of life is improved. The writer is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.