Iran's nationalism vs US strategy
Iran has a great past. Its civilization is as ancient as that of Greece. When our Prophet was born in the 6th century, two great empires held sway to the north of Arabia. Roman and Persian empires shared borders with each other and the border line was more or less through the middle of present Syria. During the British period, Iran became a "puppet state" and in 1953 the nationalistic Prime Minister Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh gained the enduring affection of millions of Iranians for the way he stood up to Britain in his quest to assert Iranian control over its oil production. Likewise the present regime has turned the nuclear issue to be a prime vehicle for projecting newfound national power, prestige and confidence to citizens and the world. Iranians ask, if Israel can have atomic bombs, what is wrong with other countries in the Middle East having nuclear warheads? It was the US that encouraged Israel to become a nuclear power. Israel and the US had a secret agreement in 1969 in which Israel had to be publicly ambivalent on the nuclear bombs. Israel neither denies nor confirms its possession of nuclear warheads. Iran's strategy
The nuclear arsenal was injected in the Middle East through Israel to give an overwhelming edge to it over Arabs; the US policy is to ensure that Israel remains the strongest power in that region. Recently the US Ambassador to Israel signed an agreement with Israeli government providing $30 billion worth of weapons to Israel over 10 years, representing a 25% increase from present levels. Already Israel, with the assistance of the US, has replenished the weapons that were lost during the Lebanese war. Why is the military aiding Israel? It is simply to contain Iran's power and influence . In view of this, Iran's attitude towards nuclear issue has to be understood. The Iranian regime is not inclined to compromise over the nuclear issue because they assert that it will be used for peaceful purposes. If the Middle East is turned into a "nuclear free zone", Iran might seriously consider not proceeding with nuclear programme. It is true that energy demand is rising in Iran. And its oil industry may not be able to satisfy the demand in the coming decades. Besides, with the price of oil so high, why would Iran want to burn oil for electricity when it can sell a barrel of oil to the world for over $70? It is economic common sense. Iran sees the nuclear issue similar to oil nationalization issue of the '50s. The leaders like to take the mantle of a new Mossadegh, presenting themselves as the true saviour of Iran's national rights. Iranians view the US' suspicion as further proof of the West's condescending attitude towards Iran that takes no account of its millennia-old civilization. Furthermore, Iranian leaders consider the rise of Iran a stabilizing influence in a neighborhood marked by "failed" states. The Bush administration by its flawed war on terrorism demolished two of Iran's regional enemiesthe Talebans and Saddam Hussein. With the administration bogged down in Iraq, Iran's standing has been on the rise. It is gradually assuming its place as the superpower of the Gulf, something the Shah of Iran aspired to. A New Shift of power in the Middle East
Many commentators have traced a very important new development in the Middle East, the Shi'ia revival. There is a view among some Sunni section that the Shi'ia communities in different countries have been gaining encouragement and support from each other and Iran, as the Shi'ite mother country. President Mubarak caustically remarked that the Arab Shi'ias appeared to be more loyal to Iran than to their own countries. Jordan's King Abdullah called it the emergence of "the Shi'ite Crescent" from Lebanon to Iran. Before Iraqi war, such sectarianism was not known in the Islamic community in the Middle East. Furthermore, close cooperation between Iran-Syria is another important dimension in the region. One is an Arab State and the other is non-Arab. But they reportedly provide support to Hezbollah against Israel. US Strategy
Washington, on the other hand, sees Iranian intransigence over the nuclear issue as further evidence that Iran is determined to produce nuclear warhead. For stability of Iraq, the Bush administration is compelled to sit down with Iranian officials and this clearly manifests the influence of Iran on Iraq. The rise of Iran is a new power game for the West. The US wants to limit the power of Iran in the Middle East as it does for China in the Asia-Pacific. The US strategy is to counter Iran's influence by Arab states and accordingly the US is providing military aid to Egypt ($13 billion), and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States ($20 billion), as it has been promoting Australia, India and Japan to limit the influence of China in the region. The US-India nuclear deal is to be seen in this context of power game. Japan's proposed abandonment of pacifism, encouraged by the US, has been stalled for the time being after the poor showing at the recent upper house poll for the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. However, Japan under the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has not abandoned its intention to be a military power again on the plea of threat from North Korea. If the US deal is cleared eventually by the Nuclear Suppliers Group, then China and Pakistan might come up with a similar deal to counter the impact of the US-India nuclear agreement. Conclusion
Political commentators suggest that the challenge for the US is to ease China into the world and not make the mistakes Europe made with rising Germany at the early 20th century , which started a cycle of wars that included the First and Second World Wars. In the past the world has never seen the rise of a new power without war. The incoming summit meeting of the 21 countries of APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) of the heads of states/governments in the first week of September in Sydney (where US President, China's President and Prime Minister of Japan will attend among others) may include security issues including ways of cooperation and not confrontation with China in the Asia Pacific region for facilitating further economic growth of the region. The author is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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