Israel in the changing geo-political situation
Photo: schrank (top left) and englishclub (bottom)
The arab region is riddled with volatile situation if we look at the political happenings such as the Palestine-Israel gordian knot, a highly unstable Yemen, the situation in Libya, the future of Egypt, handsome possibility of the fall of Assad in Syria, Lebanon with Hezbollah as a major domestic player, Algeria, Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran and Morocco, have their own instabilities heightened by the possibility of religious extremism or the threat of Al Qaeda. It is already evident that after the Arab spring, Israel is in a precarious position with its Muslim allies like Egypt and Turkey, which will be evident in the following discussion. Even Jordan's King Abdullah II, one of Israel's few remaining close allies in the Muslim world, strongly rejected the notion that his country should take in Palestinians as a substitute for the creation of a state for them. The Israeli ambassador to Egypt, Yitzhak Levanon, left the country with his family and staff of the diplomatic mission after hundreds of Egyptians stormed the Israeli embassy in Cairo, tried to tear down the newly built wall around it and threw thousands of documents to the street. The delicate balance was broken abruptly last August when five Israeli soldiers killed Egyptian border guards in Sinai at an operation to capture militants, who attacked two buses, a military vehicle and a civilian car. This led to mass demonstrations in Cairo against the Israeli Embassy, where they demanded the expulsion of Israeli Ambassador with an official apology. After the incident, an Egyptian crisis cabinet has met and the country's interior minister has declared a state of alert and canceled vacations for police throughout the country. The diplomatic crisis between Israel and Egypt has pushed the U.S. president, Barack Obama, to express his "concern" and call on to the Egyptian government to ensure the security of the Israeli Embassy. The new military rulers ensured that they would respect, not only because the assurance guarantee Egypt a major U.S. military aid, but, the government also has to deal with the discontent of the Egyptian people, who do not sympathize with Israel for its abuses on the Palestinians. As part of the security measures, the Egyptian authorities had decided to build the six feet wall saying that it was not to protect the embassy but was aimed at protecting residents of nearby buildings. Also, the Egyptian Armed Forces have begun to seal the tunnels along the 12 km border between Gaza and Egypt due to the constant complaints of the Israelites over the smuggling of weapons from Egypt into the Gaza Strip through tunnels. This is to mention here that, Egypt is the only Muslim state having diplomatic relations with Israel and Israel made a rare apology for the deaths of the Egyptian soldiers after Cairo threatened to withdraw its ambassador. Though according to 'Now Lebanon', initially an Israeli military commander said that, after the attacks in Israel by the militants, Israeli and Egyptian security forces killed four of the militants on the Egyptian side of the border, which Sinai officials denied. The Peace Treaty signed between Israel and Egypt in 1979, has been a solid pillar of stability in the border decreasing headaches for the United States, who is interested in maintaining good relations with both. Large sectors of the Egyptian population continue their demand for free and fair elections for a civilian rule. Here potential new authorities will have to take into account the degree of influence of the "Muslim Brotherhood", considering their animosity toward Israel. Young opponents of Egypt blamed for what happened to the supporters of deposed president, Hosni Mubarak, and former Interior Minister Habib al-Adly, with the intention of destabilizing the country. The opponents said that they want to create a chaotic situation in Egypt, damage the image of the revolution and the failure of the trial held against Mubarak, Another possible change in the geo-political situation is the pending request from the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) in the General Assembly of the United Nations, in this September for official recognition as a full member instead of an "observer". If the United States applies its veto in the Security Council of the United Nations to block the appeal of PNA, it may resort to the General Assembly for votes. About this, one Israeli official said the adoption of a resolution recognizing the Palestinian state would create insurmountable gap and delay the negotiations. He specifically said that if the resolution was passed, the Palestinians would less be willing to negotiate and no leader of Israel could ever accept what the Palestinians might demand from the United Nations. In a letter (Thursday Sep 15, 2011) to 40 European heads of state, Democrats warned that such a step would have "devastating consequences for the peace process as well as for the Palestinians." Israel and the United States oppose the move, saying it would undercut negotiations leading to a two-state solution. Furthermore, Israel does not intend to announce in advance how they would react if the UN approves of the resolution, taking a "basket of options" ranging from disregarding Oslo Accords, to occupying the Jordan Valley and large settlement blocs. It is estimated that above possibilities would have serious implications internally in Israel particularly in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. We know the opposition of the United States to the Palestinian proposal for recognition. But in the European Union there is divided opinion. There is a country like Spain, supporting but nations like Germany and Italy who are opposing. French President Sarkozy has recently expressed his desire to have "a unified EU voice" in the case of Palestinian statehood order. The role of the United States is undeniable and irreplaceable, but everyone thinks it is not enough and urged Washington to do more for peace. According to New York Times, the Palestinian decision to apply for full United Nations membership at the Security Council, announced on 16th Sep, 2011 by President Mahmoud Abbas, was the most viable of the only options possible: surrender, return to violence or appeal to the international community, a senior Palestinian official said on the next day. The official, Nabil Shaath, spoke to journalists before leaving for New York as part of the Palestinian delegation heading to the United Nations. He said that the appeal would change the ground rules of the conflict, and that although the Obama administration had vowed to veto the request and Israel had threatened punitive countermeasures, the Arab uprisings should make them reconsider the issue. Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan too, pose three real challenges to Israel as it has to face them for their possible vote in favour of Palestine at the UN meeting. Israel and Turkey -- key American allies -- are also at loggerheads with each other. But they disagree over the source of their disagreement. Turkey says it expelled the Israeli ambassador and cut it military ties with the Zionist state because Israel continues oppressing and mowing down Palestinians and refuses to apologize for killing activists aboard in a Turkish-based flotilla last year. Israel says Turkey wants regional supremacy so it is forsaking Israel. To draw a new geopolitical map of the Middle East and adjacent areas, we have to wait and see what happens. However, Israel and US should understand that the world cannot continue bypassing the Palestinian peace process in a frozen state, as "Arab Spring" will affect other parts of the region.
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