Does Russia fit into Bangladesh's geopolitical matrix?
canstockphoto
Pragmatically, we are done with "friendship-to-all-malice-to-none" period. Now, it is the geopolitical compulsion that leads to the reckoning of how to employ geo-strategic advantages to build a sustainable security design for the future ahead. The question forges to the front when we face a dilemma in making decisions on any of the offers made by the big powers to contribute for our sake. Again very recently, it has become an issue when an agreement with Gazprom, the state-owned energy-exploration company of Russia for cooperation and assistance in the area of gas exploration in Bangladesh has been ratified by the two countries. However, the question of a steady Bangladesh-Russia relations was brought into the spotlight when the present government reached a five-year nuclear deal with Russia seeking assistance in the field of the peaceful use of nuclear energy, particularly building a 1,000-megawatt nuclear power plant to help supply of the increasing energy demands of Bangladesh. The plant was projected to cost up to $2 billion to be able to generate electricity by 2014. Under the agreement, Russia would assist to design, construct and operate nuclear power plants and to train Bangladeshi engineers and officials. Bangladesh, since its independence in 1971, has been facing the absence of a concrete foreign policy direction with regard to its relations with big powers. Volatile nature of the policy and frequent shifts in strategic preferences have made the country less appealing to geopolitically significant actors and hence less recipient of benefits from the regional and international ambience. Bangladesh situated in a geo-politically significant setting within the 'geo-strategic frontier' of India and in a close propinquity with China. This setting made the country increasingly important for the big power contest particularly amongst China, America and Russia. Russia, after an initial backlash of post-cold war stagnancy, has appeared to retrieve its strategic position as a big Eurasian power again. With a growing economic capabilities and strong leadership under Putin administration, Russia had been able to show a resurgence to encounter Western influence in all strategic regions including South Asia. Into the bargain, Bangladesh will obviously be considered as a strategic footprint for Russia in the South Asian regional calculation. Historically, Soviet assistance to Bangladesh has proved to be catalyst in the development of the country as an independent entity. In the war of independence of Bangladesh in 1971, Soviet Union played a very significant role. It was one of the first countries to recognize Bangladesh and contributed substantially in post war reconstruction of Bangladesh. Strategically, Soviet Union's engagement in 1971 was a strategic compulsion for the country driven by enlightened national interest. Moscow wanted regional stability and preeminence of India, its trusted ally while containing the ascendancy of US-China-Pakistan alliance. Soviet Union recognized the newly independent nation, continued friendly relations and provided with aid and development assistance till the collapse of Mujib Regime in 1975. Unfortunately, Bangladesh has failed to improve its relations with the post-Soviet Russia and bilateral relations have been in a very ordinary level since 1990s. Russia requires a strategic foothold in South Asia. The foreign policy of Russia is directed to the recovery of its traditional strategic outstretches in South Asia. The country intends to include more countries under its strategic bandwagon. After India, Bangladesh stands the second best option for the Russian Federation. Similarly, Bangladesh is yearning for a strategic partnership with a big power to enhance security and bargaining capability for the attainment of its regional and international foreign policy goals. Given the US selective and temporary nature of friendship, Russia stands to be a better option in the geopolitical calculation of Bangladesh. Another important aspect is the energy sector which happens to be the main source of Russia's foreign exchange earnings. Only in 2007, the country had US$ 220 billion revenue from the energy export. On the other hand, Bangladesh energy requirements have been far greater than the energy supplied. The country needs both oil and gas import to support its growing consumer and industrial demand. Bangladesh can import energy particularly oil and gas from the Russian Federation in near future. Importantly, Russia possesses sophisticated nuclear enrichment technology and is willing to assist Bangladesh. Russia has experienced a robust economic growth for the past several years, an average of 6.8 percent per year running a budget surplus that has exceeded 7 percent of GDP. The country has a possession of $497 billion gold and foreign exchange reserves (the largest in its history). Bangladesh can obtain more trade opportunity, preferential arrangements, direct investment, and so on. There is potential for further expansion of exports of tea, jute, jute manufactures, footwear, pharmaceuticals, and melamine in the Russian market. Similarly, Bangladesh can export its abundant human capital to meet Russia's need of skilled manpower and labor force because of its declining population, 0.5% per year. A tripartite arms race in South Asia -- China vs India and India vs Pakistan -- makes the South Asian region a significant arms market for Russia. China and India are the most important customers of Moscow's armaments industry, purchasing approximately 70% or $3 billion annually. On the other side, Bangladesh needs to improve its power through building a strong military capability to protect its national interest and security in the asymmetric power balance in South Asia. Unsettled territorial and border disputes with India and Myanmar have given Bangladesh an imperative to develop the quality of its armed and border security forces with modern weaponry and effective training. Bangladesh can import sophisticated military hardware from Russia at a concessional rate. Bangladesh can seek Russian assistance in handling the threat of terrorism in the country, given the US unpredictable anti-terrorist campaign (War on Terror) -- sometimes co-optive, sometimes suppressive. Russia's pining for a gateway to the Indian Ocean that connects the oil-rich Persian Gulf with growing energy markets in East Asia can be helpful in protecting Bangladesh maritime interest which has sidelined by the illegitimate claims by India and Myanmar on the territorial water and exclusive economic zone of Bangladesh. The strategic partnership of Bangladesh with Russia would increase both of its geo-strategic and geo-economic appeal of Bangladesh. Adopting a policy of bilateralism, Bangladesh can make an opportunity to work collectively with the Russia-India and Russia-China joint pool to uphold its national interest in the extremely volatile region of South Asia in the post 9/11 era. This would make India more congenial to resolve bilateral outstanding issues such as reasonable solution to maritime demarcation, equitable water sharing and reducing trade deficit. However, Bangladesh has to manage its partnership with Russia within an acceptable bound of its other partners so that it does not jeopardize bilateral relations with India, China and the United States in a massive scale. In parallel, we have to develop very healthy relationship with India, China and the European Union to protect our politico-economic interest worldwide.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments