Significance of Indian PM's Afghanistan visit
Photo: Facenfacts
INFLUENCE in Afghanistan has been a cause of tension between India and Pakistan. On 16th April, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has held talks with Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Kabul. Mr Gilani was joined by his armed forces chief, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, and the head of the intelligence agency, Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha. It's unusual for the trio of Pakistan's power elite to visit Karzai at the same time. The visit is very significant in terms of Afghan-Pakistan relations which have been plagued by mutual distrust and suspicion. The talks are about forging a new chapter in Afghan-Pakistan relations after years of tension. On 12th May, the Indian PM was making his first two-day visit to Kabul in six years. The timing is significant because Pakistan's international reputation was damaged after the killing of Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan, and New Delhi may see an opportunity to nudge Kabul closer to its side. Karzai has visited India 10 times since 2002, and was educated for a time in the Indian hill station of Simla. Singh last visited Afghanistan in 2005. Both Mr Singh and Mr Karzai feel vindicated that Bin Laden was discovered in Pakistan as they have long accused Islamabad of upsetting regional stability by harbouring militants. Pakistan has been deeply embarrassed by the May 2 killing of bin Laden by US Special Forces in the garrison city of Abbottabad, just two hours' drive from Islamabad, forced to deny allegations of incompetence and complicity. The two leaders held discussions about regional stability, counter-terrorism and the India-Afghanistan strategic partnership, built on what correspondents say is largely a shared mistrust of Pakistan. Mr Singh addressed a joint session of parliament on 13th May in what correspondents say was a rare honour. Singh's visit also comes at a time when the region is preparing for the first drawdown by US troops from July. The question that will continue to be debated is whether Osama's death will have an impact on the withdrawal timetable. Official sources here seemed to suggest that the US would not up and leave just yet. US Major General John Campbell, who commands NATO-led forces in the East, told reporters this week that the death could encourage Afghan insurgents to lay down their weapons and spur a possible peace settlement to end the war. Any rapid reduction of US presence in Afghanistan would cause India concern, as it fears the country could become dominated by a Taliban-influenced government friendly towards its arch-rival Pakistan. Singh said that he and Karzai had an "exchange views on developments in the region and our common fight against the scourge of terrorism". "The quest of the Afghan people for peace, stability and reconciliation needs the full support of all countries in the region and the international community," he said in a statement before leaving New Delhi. The Indian prime minister also said he strongly backs the Afghan government's efforts to reconcile with the Taliban. The BBC's Quentin Sommerville says President Karzai's desire for talks with the Taliban has not in the past sat easy with India. But standing by President Karzai, Manmohan Singh said he now strongly supported those discussions. "We wish to see a peaceful, stable, democratic, pluralistic Afghanistan. We strongly support Afghan people's quest at peace and reconciliation," Mr Singh said. "India supports firmly the unity, integrity and prosperity of Afghanistan." Analysts say that India may now accept that the Taliban has to be part of any political resolution to the war in Afghanistan. But it also dearly does not want its arch-rival Pakistan leading any reconciliation process. After more than two decades without sway in Kabul, India swiftly established diplomatic ties with the new government after the 2001 US-led invasion deposed the extremist Taliban. India has since committed 1.3 billion dollars to Afghanistan for projects ranging from new roads and electricity lines to constructing a new parliament. "India's [total] development assistance commitment is approximately $1.5bn, but there are still gaps," Mr Singh told a joint press conference with President Hamid Karzai. "We now have a better idea of where we can do more... We have made a fresh commitment of $500m over the next few years." The money will be spent on agriculture, schools and roads. India is already building the new parliament in Kabul - at a cost of $19m. Correspondents say India's promise of more money is likely to raise Pakistani fears about Delhi's influence in Afghanistan. India is the biggest regional donor to the country. India is also pushing a regional role in helping Afghanistan's development needs. But the lead for that has been taken by Turkey, which organized a meeting of regional donors in Istanbul. India was represented by foreign secretary Nirupama Rao. Turkey will hold a larger conference in November in the run-up to the second Bonn conference. The US is negotiating a Strategic Partnership Declaration with Afghanistan, which includes a status-of-forces-agreement -- it will see more US bases in Afghanistan. This will not go down well with either Pakistan or China. But sources said India would push for countries like Iran, Russia, central Asian republics to play a larger role in Afghanistan, to balance out Pakistan's actions, which India believes would only be Taliban-oriented. Both India and Afghanistan have troubled relationships with Pakistan, accusing it of supporting and sheltering militant leaders who orchestrate attacks in the region. The growing closeness between the two countries has infuriated Islamabad, which also wants to increase its influence in Afghanistan. But the Afghan-Indian relationship has raised hackles in Islamabad, where the government and military establishment has long considered Afghanistan its own strategic asset to offset the perceived threat from India in the east. Analysts say India's tussle with Pakistan for influence in Afghanistan could sharpen as the United States begins cutting troop numbers from July with the aim of all foreign forces exiting the country by the end of 2014. President Karzai must strike a balance in dealing with his demanding neighbours - he needs Pakistan's help in reconciling with the Taliban and at the same time he needs India to counter the influence of Pakistan in his country.
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