Kyrgyzstan: What lies ahead?
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Kyrgyzstan - the first parliamentary democracy in Central Asia - where for the first time, on 10 October 2010, a free and fair parliamentary election was held. The new Prime Minister, Almazbek Atambayev, heads a new coalition government and runs the country instead of the president. He has the task of bridging political and ethnic rifts in the country. But to establish the proper democracy the Kyrgyz government should be careful about the existing political realities of the country otherwise the democracy will not be established in true sense. Currently Kyrgyzstan is in a political turmoil and the current government faces enormous problems to deal with. The troubles between Kyrgyz and Uzbek in the south have led to a visible division within Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz in the south are nationalistic to a much larger extent than the Kyrgyz in the north, because of its large Uzbek minority. This was reflected in the outcome of the 2010 parliamentary elections. The nationalistic parties have a stronghold in the south. The unavoidable problem in the country is Nepotism. In Kyrgyz politics, parties have little influence than the persons and are often unknown by the Kyrgyz public. The relatively fragmented Kyrgyz political party structure is in an ongoing process of development. On the basis of the new constitution, no political party can be created on religious or ethnic grounds, and members of the armed forces, police, and the judiciary are not allowed to join a political party. Since the ethnic disturbances of June 2010, Uzbeks are staying away from politics and also are not eager anymore to join political parties. In the 2010 elections political parties ignored issues that Uzbeks care about and most parties seemed to appeal to rising nationalist sentiments among Kyrgyz. Lacking representation, for example, could put Uzbeks at risk of losing cultural rights, such as access to Uzbek-language education. It can be a matter of tension that as the new Kyrgyz government does not have any women representative, despite the large number of female deputies in parliament. But only female parliamentary deputies will not be able to effectively protect interests of different segments of the population. Besides these issues, corruption has been a persistent problem for Kyrgyzstan over the past years. In 2009, Kyrgyzstan occupied the 15th place of most corrupt countries in the world according to Transparency International. One of the burning problems of Kyrgyzstan is its poverty, where about 40 per cent of the population lives below the poverty level (2007), and it is worst in rural areas. The poverty has made the country to be economically viable without considerable outside assistance and it lies in a volatile corner of the globe. Therefore, much importance is attached to international partners and relations. In case of political relations, Kyrgyzstan has very tensed relationship with its bordering countries in the region and its relations with the USA, Russia and China are not also very liberal. So the Kyrgyz Republic tries cautiously to balance different major outside influences to its advantage as being a former Soviet Republic, a neighbor of China, and a relatively democratic country located on a geo-strategic position for the West. Kazakhstan, the biggest importance to Kyrgyzstan, has closed its borders with Kyrgyzstan several times since the outbreak of unrest in Kyrgyzstan in April 2010. Tensions over the status of Uzbek enclaves among common borders have been increasing and remaining unsolved. Tensions also remain with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan over border disputes. The borders along the Isfara valley to the southwest of Kyrgyzstan have not been recognized by Tajikistan. These borders are creating a crossover zone for terrorists and smugglers and are very porous and relatively unprotected. China is Kyrgyzstan's biggest neighbor and is increasing its influence on Kyrgyzstan both economically and politically. Trade relations between these two countries have increased the fear that Kyrgyzstan's economy will be entirely dominated by China in near future. Politically, China tries to blunt the further penetration of US and Russian military power in Kyrgyzstan, whereas both countries have opened military bases in the country in the beginning of the 2000s. China has for long been unsatisfied regarding its borders in Central Asia, and due to the unequal power balance between China and Kyrgyzstan. Bishkek, the capital and the largest city of Kyrgyzstan, has reason to be interested in friendly relations with its huge neighbor. Relations of Kyrgyzstan with Russia are of primary concern because the country has been very dependent on the Soviet structure in economic and security matters. Though after the ouster of President Bakiyev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin of Russia was the first world leader to recognize Otunbayeva as Interim President of Kyrgyzstan. Russians have much doubts on democratization in the Central Asian country because of the above mentioned political realities in this country. The new Russian-Kyrgyz agreement on military cooperation, which will be signed by March 2011, can prove a good bilateral relation between them. Russia also sent 40 border guards in southern Kyrgyzstan, where the situation remains unstable since June's violent ethnic clashes, away from the campaign trail. Russia also promised Kyrgyzstan million in aid and the Kremlin has also signaled its willingness to pay higher rent for its military base in the country. The future of the American military base in Kyrgyzstan remains unclear in spite of the presence of the existing good relation between Kyrgyzstan and the USA. Though it is not the perfect time to justify the loyalty of democracy of Kyrgyzstan as the country has achieved its democracy only few months ago, but present condition can show us a signal that whether there exists the environment to establish proper democracy in the country or not. Because as the country is the only democratic country in the region; the region where the other countries have been dominated by authoritarian rulers; so the neighboring countries can see this democracy as a threat to them by fearing the spillover of it. Moreover, the existing political atmosphere and the other above mentioned realities can make the establishment of democracy perplexing. So this can make us to think that what lies ahead? Will it be possible to establish proper democracy in the country by having the above mentioned problems?
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