Iraqi government formed under foreign pressure
Photo: Aknews
The agreement for a unity government comprising of major Iraqi parties came after months of uncertainty and tension. The US has for months urged Iraq's quarreling factions to create a government that includes all major ethnic and sectarian groups. Iran has also played an important role in the formation of the new government, which remains in the hands of Maliki, an ally of Iran. Oddly enough, both the US and Iran had been working toward the same goal: an al-Maliki to return to power. But they differed strongly on the degree to which the Sunnis would be involved in the new government, with Iran pushing for only token Sunni participation and the US lobbying for a real Sunni partnership. New PactOn 11th November, good sense prevailed and Iraqi leaders agreed on a deal that includes former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi in the government, a rival of the current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The agreement came on the heels of three days violence that brought back echoes of country's worst years. On 10th November, bombs exploded outside homes of Christian families across Baghdad, the first such coordinated attack on Christian homes in the capital and 10 days after a siege on a church that left 58 people dead. Iraqi leaders on 11th November agreed to create a unity government believed to be under pressure from the US to accommodate the secular and Sunni supported Allawi in the government. The US insisted on the participation of Sunnis who formerly ruled Iraq and had been underrepresented in the Iraqi government since the Iraqi invasion in 2003. Maliki has been fighting bitterly for last eight months for another term for the prime minister against his rival former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, supported by Sunnis, who gained narrow win with two seats in the country's March 7 polls, and the Shiite religious party of Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, headed by Ammar al-Hakim. Allawi a secular Shiite appeared to accept defeat after insisting for months that he would not settle for nothing less than the post of Prime Minister Ayad Allawi agreed in exchange of the position of Speaker of Parliament to his bloc plus being the head of a newly created committee overseeing national security, called National Council for Strategic Policy. His role remains to be defined as the power of the Strategic Policy Council remain to be solved by Maliki. Under the political deal, the country's current President Jalal Talabani, a Kurdish leader, would remain as President, solidifying the role of Iraqi Kurds. Osama al-Najafi, a Sunni political leader within the Iraqiya bloc led by the secular Shiite, Ayad Allawi, was chosen as Speaker of the parliament. Last month, Iraqi Federal Court ordered the country's parliament to resume as soon as possible. The session of the parliament began on 11th November. The parliament's first session was opened on June 14, three months after the country's March 7 parliamentary election, but it only lasted for 18 minutes due to disputes over the definition of the largest bloc and the government formation, and was delayed until further notice. According to the Iraqi Constitution, the Parliament must elect its new Speaker and his two deputies in the first session. Then the Parliament under the new Speaker would elect a new President who will later assign the candidate of the largest bloc as the Prime Minister and to form his cabinet. However, the Iraqi parliamentary blocs insist to agree on the nomination of President, parliament Speaker and Prime Minister, as one package before resuming the parliament session. Gainers and losers in the deal
Once again, in the government Shiites are predominant, Kurds are pacified and Sunnis are left with indeterminate powers. The last time that was the case, following the 2005 election, the country was ravaged by sectarian violence. The agreement is a victory for Maliki who has remained determined to stay as Prime Minister. He visited Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Turkey and Egypt. Observers say that the purpose of the visit was to rally support for Maliki in the region for his candidacy for a second term in the Prime Minister's office, as well as asserting his position as the country's leader to the global community, although some of the Sunni states he visited are wary over Iranian influence on Iraqi Shiite government. The head of the Guardians Council, one of Iran's top clerical ruling bodies, praised al-Maliki's return to power and described it as a blow to neighboring, mainly Sunni Arab countries who opposed al-Maliki. It also means that the Nouri al-Mailki is more beholden to Iran than ever before. As well, in the short term, Kurds have won what they wanted: the highly symbolic position of President and a barrel full of promises. In the long run, the Kurds may yet find themselves on the outs if the political forces in Baghdad renege on their promises. In the short term, Ammar al-Hakim, leader of the Shia Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), appears to have backed the wrong man Allawi over. al-Maliki. Fragility of the government
Unclear role remains for the anti-American radical cleric Moktada al-Sadr whose support for Maliki ensured him the Prime Minister. Rivalries between Sadr and Maliki Shiite groups are long standing and often remain open. How Maliki can now manage the unwieldy alliance in running the government is a big question. Joost Hitlermann, of the International Crisis Group, reportedly has said that the compromise deal and the new strategic council are necessary to ensure Sunni enfranchisement but that they will create an unmanageable coalition in power. "You are not going to have an effective in Iraq any time soon." By and large, the Sunnis are not getting that much," said Marina Ottoway, director of the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "The Iraqiya were thrown a bone but it is not clear that there is any meat attached to the bone or not." She said the true test would be whether Iraqiya receives any of the powerful ministries such as foreign affairs, interior or defense. The top cleric at one of Iraq's most important Sunni mosques said the power-sharing deal "copies the old sectarian and ethnic distribution of power and this brings us to square one. We are expecting another four hard years," the cleric, Abdul-Satar Abdul-Jabar, who is the imam of the Abu Hanifa mosque in Azamiyah, told The Associated Press. Meanwhile the deal is proven so fragile that on the first day of the session of the new Parliament on 11 November, some 60 Iraqiya MPs, including Allawi and the new Speaker, stormed out of the Parliament when Maliki's bloc refused to support the promised vote on lifting the Baathist ban. Allawi's bloc says that under the agreement, Maliki's bloc have committed to get rid of the controversial de-Baathification law entirely within two years. Sunnis view the panel, which purges former members of Saddam Hussein's ruling party, as a thinly veiled Shiite attempt to disenfranchise Sunnis. While not unreasonably upset, the Allawi bloc is probably trying to flex its muscles to make sure that Maliki doesn't balk at the other important promise: that the new security council promised in which Allawi has real power. Given the rift on the first day of the session of Parliament, analysts say it will be something of a miracle if the government lasts until the end of next year (when U.S. troops are to be fully withdrawn), let alone lasting until the next scheduled election in 2015.
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