India's growing muscle power: Will it bring regional peace?
Photo: trak.in
South Asia's security does not depend only on South Asian countries because China comes in the picture. The impact of Indo-Sino war of 1962 looms large in India's security strategy. India assesses its security concerns in the light of Chinese military strength, and Pakistan defines its security position against India's position. This has manifested in arms and missile race in South Asia. India is turning to the US for military hardware to secure its border. India is planning to procure 126 US built multirole combat fighter jets at a cost of $11 billion to rearm country's outdated air force and upgrade defence capabilities against China and Pakistan. India is one of the biggest arms buying country in the world. Both India and Pakistan have intensified in manufacturing missile capabilities not only as defence strategy but also as symbol of power and prestige. Both India and Pakistan are capable of striking any part of each other's territory with missiles. It is reported by the Arms Control Association, a US weapons research organisation, India has between 45 and 95 nuclear bombs, while Pakistan, 30 and 50 and China has 300. Both India and Pakistan have been investing money to improve the range and mobility of their missile systems for delivering nuclear warheads. India already tested Agni -3 missile (16 metres long and weighs 48 tonnes) that has a range of beyond 3,000 kilometres and can easily hit China. The US Department of State made a statement that the successful launch of the Agni-3 hopefully would not destabilize the security situation in South Asia. India will receive nuclear fuel and technology for civilian nuclear power and will be able to divert its domestic nuclear fuel to enlarge its nuclear arsenal. This will set in motion arms race as China and Pakistan will not sit idle with India's increased defence capabilities. According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the India's Defence Ministry has earmarked US$ 2 billion annually to build 300 to 400 nuclear weapons over the next 5 to 7 years. Indian army (1.3 million as compared to Pakistan 6,25,000 ) is one of the largest in the world in active service and India possesses large conventional sophisticated weapons. It has a strong military presence in the Indian Ocean and its naval bases in far off islands, Andaman and Lakshadeep and Nicobar, are getting stronger day by day, to meet future challenges on the sea. India has also undertaken a number of naval and air projects including military reconnaissance centre in the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Some time ago, India has begun constructing a 37,500-tonne aircraft carrier that will fly MiG-29 fighters, joining only with navies of big powers in such capabilities. It also plans to lease two nuclear submarines from Russia. The US has openly discussed the sale of naval vessels, and helicopters to India. Pakistan is also building with Chinese support the Gwadar naval base in Balochistan to counter India's supremacy in the Indian Ocean. China has a naval base in Myanmar's off-shore Coco islands to have its presence felt in the Indian Ocean. China has recently opened Hambantota port in south Sri Lanka. Currently an ambitious programme to develop Colombo port has been given to another Chinese consortium. Why do India and Pakistan seek to develop missile capability?First, recent events in world politics have not only highlighted the indispensability of military capability, they have accentuated the military-strategic allure of missiles. Second, both India and Pakistan have decided to rely on ballistic missiles as a critical element of their deterrent strategy against each other. In the case of Pakistan, it has comparatively less strategic depth. More significantly, all Pakistani airbases and nuclear and ballistic missile research and deployment sites are extremely vulnerable to India's pre-emptive air strikes. Missile capability has its effectiveness due to its speed and assured penetration together with its deterrent value. Third, Indian plans to acquire theatre missile defence system (TMD) from Israel and Russia as part of its efforts to effectively neutralise Pakistan's missile capabilities. The introduction of anti-tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) capability into South Asia by India, according to Pakistani defence analysts, will have cascading effect on Pakistan by generating pressures for a bigger missile force as a countermeasure. Pakistan worries that India's defensive systems would be able to neutralize a nuclear strike by Pakistan, thus allowing India to engage in a conventional war with large army without fear of nuclear retaliation from Pakistan. Fourth, missile defence systems could help alleviate some of the instability associated with the region's poor command and control and the possibility of the accidental of the accidental or unauthorized launch of nuclear weapons. Fifth, India, Pakistan claims, views Pakistan as an obstacle to its great power ambitions and is therefore pursuing a security strategy that seeks to nullify the Pakistani threat through Indian threat of a second strike option. Conclusion
Many strategists say that military superiority of India would not bring peace and stability between them or in the region. Both countries must proceed to negotiate how to reduce mistrust among them. Military strength does not necessarily give a country the power to influence another country politically as the world politics involves global processes in an increasingly complex world. During the Cold War, an absence of armed conflicts was considered a success. At the end of the Cold War, there is a different definition of success. It is judged by interactions within the regional countries to collectively utilize their resources to enhance their economic gains in a globalised competitive world. Finally, the US is courting both India and Pakistan for different reasons. The US wants India to counter China's claim to regional leadership and it needs Pakistan to combat growing might of Talibans in Afghanistan. The visit of President Obama in India in November demonstrates that the US looks forward to strengthening strategic partnership with India and seeks greater cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, services, nuclear energy, science, technology and defence. After President Obama, French President Nicholas Sarkozy and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev are scheduled to visit India confirming India's regional leadership. On 30th October former Prime Minister of Australia John Howard has predicted China's one-child policy and its political philosophy will allow India to supersede it as the dominant nation in Asia before the end of the 21st century.
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