New sanctions on Iran: Will it work?
ON 9th June, the United Nations Security Council voted to impose fourth round of sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program. The resolution, which the US pushed for, was approved by a vote of 12 to 2, with Brazil and Turkey voting against. The resolution followed five months of arduous negotiations between the United States, Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia The vote is seen as a victory for the US and others because Russia and China, which had earlier threatened to veto the measure, both joined in support. Earlier UN sanction
It is noted that the Security Council has imposed three sets of sanctions on Iran, in December 2006, March 2007 and March 2008. In September 2008, the Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution again ordering Iran to halt enrichment, but imposed no more sanctions, due to opposition from Russia and China. The three sanctions relate to:
-The first covered sensitive nuclear materials and froze the assets of Iranian individuals and companies linked with the nuclear program. It gave Iran 60 days to suspend uranium enrichment, a deadline Iran ignored. -The second included new arms and financial sanctions. It extended an asset freeze to 28 more groups, companies and individuals engaged in or supporting sensitive nuclear work or development of ballistic missiles, including the state-run Bank Sepah and firms controlled by the Revolutionary Guards. Iran again ignored an order to halt enrichment. -The third measure increased travel and financial curbs on individuals and companies and made some of them mandatory. It expanded a partial ban on trade in items with both civilian and military uses to cover sales of all such technology to Iran, and added 13 individuals and 12 companies to the list of those suspected of aiding Iran's nuclear and missile programs. Why did Russia and China vote for sanctions?
Both Russia and China are against nuclear proliferation of weapons among other countries. Iran is a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and both countries appeared to have been convinced that Iranian enrichment of uranium could lead to manufacturing of nuclear warheads, despite Iranian claim that its nuclear programme is for peaceful goal of generating electricity. Russia's foreign ministry later explained that new sanctions did not impose "stifling or paralysing" sanctions on Iran and "our efforts aim to give impetus to a political and diplomatic solution of the issue." China is believed to have been briefed in February this year by a secret Israeli delegation who provided classified evidence of Iran's atomic ambitions. They explained what a pre-emptive attack would do to the region and on oil supplies China has come to depend on. Israel suggested that an attack was likely should the international community fail to stop Iran from manufacturing a nuclear weapon. Whether the Israeli briefing persuaded China to support the sanctions may never be known. What will the fourth round of sanctions accomplish?
Three annexes are attached to the resolution. Under the first annex regarding those involved in nuclear or ballistic missile activities, one individual, Javad Rahiqi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, is listed. There are also 22 entities listed, ranging from Doostan International Co., which supplies elements to Iran's ballistic missile program, to the First East Export Bank, which is owned or controlled by Bank Mellat. According to the paper, Bank Mellat has facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions for Iranian nuclear, missile and defense entities over the last seven years. In the second annex relating to entities affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 15 institutions or companies are listed, while the third annex singles out three companies as entities acting on behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines. Advocates for sanctions say the imposition of new sanctions may be viewed as a valuable tool in slowing Tehran's march to acquire nuclear weapons.The resolution will further hamper the production of highly enriched uranium at suspect sites. The sanctions will constrict the flow of goods and financial transactions that facilitate the advanced technology available to Iranian scientists. Trade in components that have a dual usage will be aggressively targeted under the terms of the new resolution. They argue the new sanctions are aimed at persuading banks and companies to avoid business with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, the military branch that is now involved in Iranian politics, business and foreign policy. Boeing and Exxon said new sanctions would cost Iran $25 billion in exports to the US. Another fallout from sanctions is that on 12 June, Russia has frozen the sale of air defence missiles (S-300) worth $800 million to Iran. The Russian shift came on the same day the Kremlin and the White House announced that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev would meet with President Obama in Washington on June 24. The long-term value of additional sanctions lies in the wider impact on Iranian internal politics and its economy. The Islamic leadership has weathered the mass demonstrations and agonising political schisms that emerged in the wake of the disputed June 2009 Presidential election. The government still remains on its guard and distrustful of its opposition leaders. Sanctions may demonstrate the inability of Iranian current leadership to persuade China and Russia not to support the new round of sanctions and may create division among ruling circles against the President. Iran's reaction
The response from Iran was quick. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said they deserve to be "thrown in the dust bin. These resolutions are not worth a dime for the Iranian nation. I gave one of them (world powers) a message that the resolutions you issue are like a used hanky which should be thrown in the dust bin. They are not capable of hurting Iranians." Iran's parliament has threatened to abandon cooperation on its nuclear programs. Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iranian envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, says: "We invited them to come to the negotiating table, to change the confrontation to cooperation but it seems some of them are deaf. They cannot listen to honest appeals and requests and recommendations." Iran's atomic chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, slammed China, which has emerged as Iran's main trading partner in recent years, for agreeing to the sanctions. "China is gradually losing its respectable position in the Islamic world and by the time it wakes up, it will be too late. There was a time when China branded the US as a paper tiger. I wonder what we can call China for agreeing to this resolution." he told ISNA news agency. However, both China and Iran already have mended their ties as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited China on 17th June after the UN Security Council slapped Tehran with fresh sanctions. US and EU additional sanctions
The US and the European Union imposed sanctions which go beyond the UN sanctions. The European Union on 17th June followed suit with what it called "inevitable" new measures against Tehran. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev criticised separate US and European sanctions against Iran, telling a newspaper that the big powers should "act collectively" and not unilaterally. He said the US had nothing to lose by imposing additional sanctions because, unlike Russia and China, it has no ties with Tehran. Critics' views
Many diplomats concede that President Ahmadinejad may attempt to use the sanctions to rally support. As economic conditions inevitably deteriorate, he can more easily blame the West for falling incomes, rising unemployment and, perhaps, a scarcity of goods in the shops. Critics argue the new sanctions have been advertised by the Obama administration as a demonstration of world unity against the Iranian nuclear program. In reality, they are so weak and so lacking in international support that they do nothing more than showcase the recklessness of Obama's smart diplomacy. Iran could still achieve its goal of nuclear arms at a slower rate, however, the door would remain open for Israel or America to deliver a knock out blow by military means in future with terrible global consequences. It may be recalled that on 28th May, at the 2010 NPT Review Conference in New York, there was an agreement by 118 nations to hold a regional conference in 2012 to discuss issues relevant to a Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems (Israel did not attend and objected to this proposal). Observers say that diplomatic negotiation is the only alternative and a creation of nuclear weapons-free-zone in the Middle East which Iran supports may lead to stability of the region. Israel has nuclear weapons and the governments in the region have been calling on the world not to apply double standards when it comes to Israel.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments