Gaza and aftermath of Annapolis
It currently seems as though the Israeli decision makers are conducting two different policies towards the Palestinians; the first towards the Palestinian Authority and Abu Mazen and the second towards Hamas in the Gaza Strip. As a matter of fact, however, the Israelis are conducting one policy for both entities, that of continuing to confront instead of real negotiations with both parts of the Palestinians. Concerning Abu Mazen and the intensive talks before the Annapolis gathering, the Israeli strategy is to continue talking with Abu Mazen in order to isolate and contain Hamas. It is quite certain that the negotiations with Abu Mazen will lead to a kind of amorphous declaration, which will be very comfortable for Israel and the Bush Administration, without any timetable for implementing the hard-core issues of this declaration. In addition, there are also great doubts about the future of Ehud Olmert as Prime Minister. There is a high probability that he will resign immediately after the Annapolis Summit, using his illness as an excuse. He can claim that he has brought Israel to the "Road of Peace", and by accomplishing that his role as Prime Minister is complete. By conducting this step he can gain moral popularity, a step that will divert attention from the Vinograd Commission and the police investigations against him. Consequently, he can get more sympathy from Israeli public opinion and many might forget his great fiasco of the Lebanon War. If not, Tsipi Livni or another figure from Kadima might replace him. Annapolis will have no real meaning. All that will remain will be the photo opportunities for all the partners who are supposed to be supporting and helping the Bush Administration in its global war against Iraq and Afghanistan. The next Israeli leader will be the same kind of tactician as his predecessor Olmert. He or she will waste more time adjusting to the position and learning the new political circumstances. Ehud Barak, meanwhile, will not comment on any agreement or non-agreement with the Palestinians. He will continue to perceive Gaza as the real and concrete threat to Israel. The next Prime Minister, with the assistance of the US, will continue to use the same formula of General Keith Dayton in the West Bank; to separate the West Bank from Gaza and to continue to perceive the Gaza Strip as a hostile entity and as a matter for treatment by the Israeli security forces. Concerning the West Bank, Israel and its security forces will continue its incursions into the heartland of the West Bank, while at the same time they will agree to go along with the Dayton Plan of deploying Palestinian police in some of the Palestinian urban areas, such as Nablus and Ramallah. These forces will be allowed to work in cooperation and coordination with Israel's security forces. These Palestinian forces will have a limited mandate of keeping the order and of arresting some wanted figures for the Israelis. Mahmoud Abass (Abu Mazen) has given a complete mandate to the US security coordinator Keith Dayton to control and deploy the Palestinian police in the West Bank. These forces have the task of maintaining the security regime of Abu Mazen and containing Hamas in the West Bank. The main fear of the Fatah regime is the rising of Hamas in the West Bank. However, in a televised speech on 4 November on Al-Jazeera, PM Ismael Haneya accused the Palestinian Authority of conducting a massive campaign of cracking down on Hamas activities in the West Bank with the cooperation of the Israeli IDF. Haneya accused Abass of cooperating with Israel in implementing a siege on Gaza and of carrying out large-scale bombardments against Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, which has caused the killing of 174 Palestinian civilians in the last two months. Haneya described the situation in Gaza as catastrophic. There are no exits or entrances, even for Moslem Pilgrims and ill people. Gaza's fruits and vegetables are left in refrigerators without any possibility for export. He urged the Egyptians and the European Union to do something concerning this issue. Haneya ignored Abass and his agreement with the Americans by declaring that even if the talks lead to a declaration of principles, "we need immediate withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza Strip", and not a declaration of principles which will continue forever. Haneya's argument is that the Annapolis meeting will lead to nowhere. However, its main task is to consolidate more states against Iran and locally support Abu Mazen in containing Hamas with the Israeli forces. Annapolis Prospective
The Palestinian Prime Minister asked Abu Mazen not to take part in attacking Palestinian civilians in West Bank with Israel, because by doing so, he will gradually lose his legitimacy among the Palestinians. However, the Palestinian authority will continue with its policy of containing Hamas in the West Bank with Israel's cooperation and with American's assistance. At the same time, Hamas will try to revive the Palestinian Parliament by receiving authorization from the arrested parliamentarians of Hamas to hold a session of Parliament. As a result, Abu Mazen will lose more of his legitimacy while he is directing negotiations with Israel. Abu Mazen will also continue to lose support because the opposition is growing against him and because Israel will not stop the attacks against the West Bank and the bombardment against Gaza. Mahmoud Abass has not succeeded in convincing Israel to dismantle any outposts from the West Bank or to stop constructing the Wall. Israeli political leaders are not capable of making any concessions to Abu Mazen. As a result, the chances of any success at the Annapolis gathering are very slim. The security analysis of Amman (The IDF military intelligence) is therefore predicting the total failure of the Annapolis conference (Haaretz, 7 November 2007). Consequently, the failure of this international gathering will lead to the collapse of the Abu Mazen regime, and at the same time, will affect his status as the leader of the Palestinian Authority and as the Head of the PLO. His disappearance from the scene, however, will create a vacuum in the leadership of the Palestinian forces, which are currently cooperating and coordinating efforts with both the US and Israel. As a result, Israel's policy will again repeat the same terminology of "no partner" on the Palestinian side and the urgent need to contain Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In an interview with the Jerusalem Post published on 13 August 2007, Martin Indyk, a former US ambassador to Israel argued that "the Bush Administration would be wrong to believe that it could secure a permanent Palestinian Israeli accord in the final year or so that it has left in office." Indyk's argument confirms the main concept that Ms. Rice is supportive of the restoration of talks between the two sides due to her inability to push forward on any issue other than the failure of the Administration in Iraq or any possible attack against Iran. Regarding the conference in Annapolis and the Middle East, Rice wants to achieve something for the Bush Administration before the occurrence of a catastrophe. The US Administration, has therefore, identified the weak factor in the regional Middle Eastern system as Abu Mazen, and he will be made to pay the price for the Americans in order to promote their Middle East national interests. Abu Mazen, however, will gain nothing for himself or for his Fatah Movement or for the Palestinian. The result might be the destabilization of the area and a circle of bloodshed between the two sides for a long time. It does not seem logical that Israel will succeed in controlling Gaza and then later bring in multi-lateral European forces. Any such action means that they will prevent a Palestinian State and support the Israeli occupation and control in Gaza and the West Bank by these multi lateral forces. Later on, Abu Mazen will pay a severe and heavy price, both on a personal and political level. Abu Mazen is conducting his policy without any real popular or parliamentary support. Israel meanwhile is accusing him of lacking any real popular support without taking into consideration that he is under Israeli protection and occupation. Israel feels that its military interests need to be preserved. The army has not been working much on preparing for this conference. Actually, none of the permanent military levels have received orders to prepare any policy papers for the Annapolis Conference. Maj. Gen. Ido Nahoshtan, the head of the Planning Department in the IDF, is trying to define the strategic interests of Israel in the West Bank. What will therefore become obvious is that Abu Mazen will become weaker and weaker because of the Israeli perception and its unwillingness to discuss a comprehensive final solution with any Palestinian figure. Abu Mazen is not the only weak leader. George Bush is also a lame duck who cannot impose a solution. He just wants to distract attention from Iraq by conducting a crisis policy with Iran and creating last opportunities for peace in the region. Concerning Israel, the inherent permanent weakness of its leadership is mainly in dealing with the Palestinians. With any discussions that the Israeli leadership has to take part in, it suddenly becomes weak and unable to move and maneuver. Olmert is currently ill and his support will soon diminish when the Vinograd Committee publishes its conclusions accusing him in the failed Lebanese adventure. Barak is the only person who is looking to take over the Prime Minister-ship if Tzispi Livni does not succeed Olmert. Barak and some forces in the military establishment are already acknowledging the failures of Annapolis and Abu Mazen. They might try to attack Gaza. However, there are great doubts if such an attack can succeed because this kind of attack might be the bloodiest the region has ever known .and the consequences will be the most disastrous not only on the human level but also on the military and strategic level. The author is a journalist and member of The Arab Council for Foreign Relations.
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