The Cheonan crisis

4 June 2010, 18:00 PM

Delwar Hossain

AFP/Getty Images

SINCE the end of the World War II, the Korean peninsula has been known to the world as one of the flash points in the map of international conflicts. The situation in the Korean Peninsula is again turning into a genuine strategic predicament in the whole region. The recent crisis is centered on the sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean naval vessel, on 26 March 2010 causing the deaths of 46 sailors. The sinking of Cheonan as such did not generate much heat in the Peninsula at the initial stage, because immediately after the incident the South Korean government formed an international investigation team officially known as the Joint Civilian-Military Investigation Group (JIG) consisting of experts from the US, the UK, Australia, Sweden and South Korea. It clearly shows the South Korean government has taken the appropriate step to identify the real cause behind the incident. The report of the investigators was finally published on 20 May 2010. The report reveals that a North Korean submarine's torpedo sank the Cheonan on 26 March 2010. As it states, "The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korean submarine. There is no other plausible explanation." This has triggered the recent crisis between the two nations. Based on the strong evidence from the investigation report the South Korean government blamed the Northern regime for this unprovoked and aggressive behavior. The President of ROK, Lee Myung-bak, declared, "I solemnly urge North Korean authorities to do the following: Apologize immediately to the Republic of Korea and the international community. Immediately punish those who are responsible for and those who are involved in the incident." On the other hand, the North Korean regime denies any involvement in the sinking, calling the investigation results a "fabrication", "conspiratorial farce", and threatening war if sanctions are imposed. Its main newspaper called the investigation an "intolerable, grave provocation". The reaction from North Korea is understandable as the country has been engaged in such war of words game for decades. It is against this background some questions are pertinent. To what extent is the evidence of international investigation team credible? What are the options for South Korea and its allies? How has international community reacted to this crisis? What is its impact for inter-Korean relations as well as regional peace? So far the report clearly establishes the case that North Korea is to blame for this incident. The scientific evidence provided by an international investigation team gives no scope to believe in other explanations whatsoever behind this incident. In addition, the past actions by the North Korean regime also provide further justification to accept the conclusion of the report. As the report has come into light, ROK government and its allies have sharply reacted and have declared punitive measures against North Korea. South Korea has suspended trade with the North. South Korea also indicated that it would resume "psychological operations" against the North and meet any further attack with an immediate military response. The ROK would not tolerate any provocative act and would maintain a principle of proactive deterrence. The tough stance by the ROK is also supported by the United States for obvious reasons. US President Barack Obama already endorsed President Lee's demand that North Korea immediately apologize and punish those responsible for the attack, and, most importantly, stop its belligerent and threatening behavior. These measures in terms of non-coercive actions such as suspension of trade and talks and threats of tough actions have not restrained the North. A commander of the North stated, "More powerful physical strikes will be taken to eradicate the root of provocation if [South Korea] challenges to our fair response." It seems that the North would retaliate and might even launch action of its own. Under these circumstances, the options for the South and its allies are really difficult choices. Analysts agree that a retaliatory military strike is not a viable option because it could escalate into a full-scale war or hurt the country's fast-recovering economy. South Korea also would not want to disrupt the G-20 summit scheduled for November in Seoul. Other military option such as staging a show of force aimed at warning against a similar provocation may also not be very effective. The international community has condemned the North although China, North Korea's closest trading partner remains silent. Beijing has distanced herself from giving any reaction to the investigation report and reportedly was slow to express sympathy for the loss of South Korean sailors. The dilemma for China is not unknown to any observers of East Asian politics and security. This time it is a unique situation for China. Both sides are seeking support from China as they are in friendly relations with China. The Russian government also maintains its own position in this crisis particularly regarding the measures against the North. Russia indicated that she would not support to raise the issue in the U.N Security Council until it gets 100% proof that the ship was sunk by North Korea. As expected, US and Japan are strongly behind South Korea. Japan has already indicated it would back a UN Security Council resolution against North Korea. Undoubtedly, the Northern regime has been further alienated from the international community through its recent acts. In a joint statement on 26 May 2010 both the ASEAN and the EU expressed "deep concern" over rising tensions in the Korean peninsula and called on both sides to exercise restraint. The impact of the crisis is serious given the history of inter-Korean relations in the post-Korean War era. The North Korean authority formally declared that from now on it would put into force the resolute measures to totally freeze the inter-Korean relations, totally abrogate the agreement on non-aggression between the North and the South and completely halt the inter-Korean cooperation. It is true that North and South Korea are technically still at war after the Korean War ended without an armistice in 1953. But for the last decade the two Koreas have come forward a long way to strengthen their bilateral ties. The Sunshine policy of South Korea played a major role in engaging the Northern regime in the process of bilateral cooperation. Since its articulation in 1998 by South Korean President Kim Dae Jung, the policy resulted in greater political contact between the two nations and some historical moments for the Korean peninsula; the two Korean summit meetings in Pyongyang (June 2000) which broke ground with several high-profile business ventures, as well as brief meetings of separated family members. Now everything looks like a distant past for the inter-Korean relations; a return to the Cold War era. Regionally, nuclearisation, North's missile programme, Japan-North Korea relations, China's relations with two Koreas, US relations with the North are going to be affected by the recent developments in the Peninsula. The role of China will be a critical factor in reversing the deteriorating scenarios in the Korean peninsula. A Chinese scholar, Shen Dingli maintains that China wants to avoid a conflict on the Korean peninsula, and is concerned that taking South Korea's side may provoke North Korea into further escalations and even lead to war. Once declared by the US as the member of the Axis of Evil and more frequently identified as one of the rogue states in the world, North Korea will further perplex its friends and enemies by its unpredictable and aggressive actions as done earlier. The way North Korea had dismissed the report of the international investigation team just gives another demonstration of her highly provocative behavior. In the conclusion, there is no way to let the situation slide into further crisis leading to military confrontation in the Korean Peninsula with deep implications for bilateral, regional, and global contexts. While it has been strongly emphasized to show mutual restraint by the primary parties of the crisis, there is a need for creating international pressure on the Northern regime. It is not the first time that the North has resorted to such acts. It has been persistently fooling the experts and policy makers through its bizarre behavior. The collapsing regime in North Korea has been living dangerously in this region. The hard earned economic prosperity of the East Asian countries would be threatened by the fear of instability and war where the North has a very little stake. The world community must come forward to understand the importance of peace in the Korean Peninsula and show solidarity with the forces that are fighting for justice and prosperity. The author is a Professor at the Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka.