Musharraf outwits political leaders
Bismarck (1815-98) once said that politics is the art of the possible. Pakistani politicians are conducting themselves in accordance with Bismarck's dictum. Furthermore, observers say that leading politicians are behaving like a chameleon changing colours to achieve its purpose. Politics is all about power and power brings prestige, influence and affluence. Few human beings can resist it. Only those who have high moral code can show guts against all odds to compromise with principles. When the Pakistan President declared virtual 'martial law' under the guise of emergency rule, Ms. Bhutto declared that she would have nothing to do with President Musharraf and would boycott elections under the emergency rule because elections would not be fair and free. In retrospect, it appears that her statement was directed to overseas audience so that the US would exert pressure on the President to lift the emergency. It worked for a while because on 16th November the US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte visited Pakistan and met President Musharraf. Negroponte urged the President to rescind the emergency, quit the uniform and hold elections. The President agreed to quit uniform and hold elections but dismissed the demand for lifting emergency. He quit the uniform on 29th November, became a civilian and took an oath for the third time as the President. Musharraf fears that if emergency were withdrawn, legal challenge for the Presidential election for the third time will be revived together with the restitution of the Supreme Court of independent-minded judges which the President dismissed on 3rd November. Lifting of emergency will be the "kiss of political death" for President Musharraf. President Musharraf seems to be an astute politician and knows how to please the US. He wanted to show that emergency rule had been declared to fight the Taliban. He has sent his soldiers to fight with the diehard Islamic militants in Swat, close to Afghan border. His action against the militants has earned support of the Bush administration. Washington conveniently forgot Musharraf's action of dismissal of judges of the Supreme Court, banning the popular TV shows aired from Abu Dhabi, and arresting of human rights activists under the emergency rule. Since Musharraf met at least two demands and took action against Islamic militants, the Bush administration has softened its attitude toward him. Furthermore the US is more concerned with war on terror in Afghanistan rather than restoration of democracy in Pakistan. Another deep concern for the US is that the nuclear-armed Pakistan should not fall into the hands of Islamists as they would likely to make nuclear weapon or its technology easily accessible to the Jehadis who have been fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. President Musharraf in the saddle is the safest bet for the US at present. Ms. Bhutto, an ally of the US, appears to have got the message from the US and took a 180-degree U-turn from her earlier position. She now says that her party, the Pakistan People's Party, was preparing to contest the elections unless all parties boycotted the elections. Accordingly, she could not leave the field open to rivals. On 26th November she filed her nomination papers. Religious-conservative Nawaz Sharif, another former Prime Minister, returned to Pakistan on 25th November. President Musharraf had to allow his return under pressure of Saudi Arabia. Sharif thanked publicly the Saudi king for his return. "The king had made it clear to Musharraf that I would have to return now," he said. Sharif also received the right message from Saudi Arabia. He said that his party would participate in elections unless all parties boycotted it. He has also submitted his nomination papers. Both Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif know that many pro-Musharraf parties are contesting the elections and their condition of boycotting the elections is strategic and appears to be hollow. This demonstrates their lack of commitment to democracy. The difference between the two leading politicians is that while Bhutto is prepared to share power with President Musharraf, Nawaz Sharif has declared that he will not, because he claims that the rule of Musharraf is illegal. The participation of election by parties of Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif will invariably put a stamp of legitimacy on the rule of President Musharraf for another five years. While President Musharraf is in power, another ally Bhutto is likely to share power with him. What an ideal combination is presented for the US in Pakistan. The rising middle class in Pakistan is, however, extremely disenchanted with the stance of both Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in compromising their position with the military dictator. They are also disappointed that the US supports a military ruler who does not want to go from office. Lawyers regularly protest, journalists resist the clamp-down action on media and human rights activists are vocal in protesting the abuses of human rights by President Musharraf. The President knows that the civil society is disorganized and poses no threat to his rule. Rather, these kinds of protests demonstrate that President Musharraf tolerates opposition to his rule and strengthens his government in the eyes of international community. In Pakistan army is an institution of discipline and commands respect from people. They are so well entrenched and their tentacles so widespread that it will be an uphill task to dislodge them from the position they now occupy via President Musharraf. The US understands that and political leaders in Pakistan have no courage and determination to fight to change this scenario. Observers believe that the position both Bhutto and Sharif has adopted may not serve their selfish or national interests in the long run. At the end of the day President Musharraf has come out victorious and got what he wanted. He has outwitted the wily politicians. Italian diplomat, political pragmatist and adviser to the Medici family of Florence, Niccolo Machiavelli (1469-1527) said, "I have never said what I believed and never believed what I said." The conduct of Pakistani leading politicians seems to follow the rules of political game set out by Machiavelli. The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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