Indo-US 123 buzz
The latest buzz on the political cacophony circuit is the bi-lateral treaty on nuclear cooperation under Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act, dubbed as Indo-US Civilian Nuclear deal. Despite a month-long display of conspicuous opposition to the civilian nuclear co-operation treaty that India's United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition government has struck with the Bush administration, the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front has abandoned. Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodar is in Vienna to negotiate with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to clinch the deal. The US is optimistic. There were indications from China that Beijing may not stand in the way of the deal when India goes to the 45 countries of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) that has to clear it. In brevity, the Indo US Civilian Nuclear deal is as follows: Introduction
On July 18, 2005, President Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reached a landmark agreement on civilian nuclear energy cooperation. The deal which marks a notable warming of US-India relations, would lift the US moratorium on nuclear trade with India, provide US assistance to India's civilian nuclear energy program, and expand US-Indian cooperation in energy and satellite technology. The critics in the United States say the agreement would fundamentally reverse half a century of US nonproliferation efforts, undermine attempts to prevent states like Iran and North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons, and potentially contribute to a nuclear arms race in Asia. What are the terms of the deal?
The details of the agreement are still being negotiated, but experts say some clear points are emerging. They include the following: * India agrees to allow inspectors from the IAEA, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog group, access to its civilian nuclear program. But India would decide which of its many nuclear facilities to classify as civilian. * India agrees to prevent the spread of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to states that don't possess them and to support international nonproliferation efforts. * US companies will be allowed to build nuclear reactors in India and provide nuclear fuel for its civilian energy program. US companies are likely to get contract of at least US$150 billion. What kind of technology would India receive in return?
India would be eligible to buy US dual-use nuclear technology, including materials and equipment that could be used to enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium, potentially creating the material for nuclear bombs. It would also receive imported fuel for its nuclear reactors. What do proponents say about the deal?
Proponents of the agreement argue it will bring India closer to the United States at a time when the two countries are forging a strategic relationship to pursue their common interests in fighting terrorism, spreading democracy, and preventing the domination of Asia by any single power. Other experts say
The deal would encourage India to accept international safeguards on facilities it has not allowed to be inspected before. This is a major step, experts say, because the existing nonproliferation regime has failed either to force India to give up its nuclear weapons or andand make it accept international inspections and restrictions on its nuclear facilities. IAEA Director-General Mohammed El Baradei has strongly endorsed the deal, calling it a pragmatic way to bring India into the nonproliferation community. The U.S. deal would reward the Indian government for its voluntary controls and give New Delhi incentive to continue them, against the demands of Indian hardliners who question what India gets out of placing such limits on itself. What are the objections to the agreement?
Critics call the terms of the agreement overly beneficial for India and lacking sufficient safeguards to prevent New Delhi from continuing to produce nuclear weapons. While India has pledged that any U.S. assistance to its civilian nuclear energy program will not benefit its nuclear weapons program, experts say India could use the imported nuclear fuel to feed its civilian energy program while diverting its own nuclear fuel to weapons production. Other objections raised by experts include: The safeguards apply only to facilities and material manufactured by India beginning when the agreement was reached. It doesn't cover the fissile material produced by India over the last several decades of nuclear activity. The deal does not require India to cap or limit its fissile material production. It does not require India to restrict the number of nuclear weapons it plans to produce. Who needs to approve the agreement?The final terms of the nuclear deal need approval from several sources before they can be implemented. The bodies required to approve the deal include: Under the U.S. Atomic Energy Act, which regulates the trade of nuclear material, congressional approval is needed to pass the exemptions to U.S. laws required for the nuclear deal to be implemented. Members of Congress are showing resistance, with some calling for India to commit to strict limits on its nuclear weapons program before the deal goes through. The 45-country of The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) wants the safeguards agreement to be approved by the board to carry out the further process. What effect will the US -India deal have on the NPT?
It could gut the agreement, experts say. Article 1 of the treaty says nations that possess nuclear weapons agree not to help states that do not possess weapons to acquire them. David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security saysSecurity, says that without additional measures to ensure a real barrier exists between India's military and civilian nuclear programs, the agreement "could pose serious risks to the security of the United States" by potentially allowing Indian companies to proliferate banned nuclear technology around the world. In addition, it could lead other suppliers including Russia and China to bend the international rules so they can sell their own nuclear technology to other countries, some of them hostile to the United States. What role does China play in the US-Indian nuclear deal?
It is a motivating factor in the deal, some experts say. China's rise in the region is prompting the United States to seek a strategic relationship with India. "The United States is trying to cement its relationship with the world's largest democracy in order to counterbalance China," says Charles D. Ferguson, science and technology fellow at the council on Foreign Relations. The Bush administration is "hoping that latching onto India as the rising star of Asia could help them handle China," Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center says. But other experts say the growing economic relationship between China and India is so critical to New Delhi that its interests in China cannot be threatened or replaced by any agreement with the United States. What effect will the deal have on US and Indian relations with Pakistan?
Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, who has suffered fierce criticism at home for his strong alliance with the United States since 9/11, has not received a similar deal on nuclear energy from Washington. Some experts say this apparent U.S. favoritism toward India could increase the nuclear rivalry between the intensely competitive nations, and potentially raise tensions in the already dangerous region. Other experts say the two countries, both admittedly now nuclear, could be forced to deal more cautiously with each other. What's the history of India's nuclear program?
In the 1950s, the United States helped India develop nuclear energy under the Atoms for Peace program. The United States built a nuclear reactor for India, provided nuclear fuel for a time, and allowed Indian scientists study at U.S. nuclear laboratories. In 1968, India refused to sign the NPT, claiming it was biased. In May 18, 1974, India tested its first nuclear bomb, showing it could develop nuclear weapons with technology transferred for peaceful purposes. On may 11, 1998, three tests was were conducted by India, which included a fusion device (of 12 kilotons), a low yield device (of 0.2 kiloton capacity), and a thermonuclear device (of 0.2 kiloton capacity). As a result of 1974 nuclear testing by India,, the United States isolated India for twenty-five years, refusing nuclear cooperation and trying to convince other countries to do the same. But since 2000, the United States has moved to build a "strategic partnership" with India, increasing cooperation in fields including spaceflightspace flight, satellite technology, and missile defense. Upshot
The deal is controversial in India, with many parliamentarians arguing it will limit India's sovereignty and hurt its security. Some Indian nuclear experts are protesting what they see as excessive U.S. participation in deciding which of India's nuclear facilities to define as civilian, and open to international inspections under the plan. The percentage of power provided by nuclear reactors is only 3% and it is the costliest source to produce. At the same time there is no technology still in the world to deal with the nuclear wastes which wastes that can be harmful for 1000 years. And France is already suffering from this. The US stands to gain contracts worth of at least US$100 billion in the deal. The benefits that India is going to reap are reap are almost compo mentis but the question is what will the US is going to have be getting in return and why are they so interested in having the deal with India. The motive behind it could be, India and China's has shown a prodigious growth and US's is having confrontation with Iraq, Iran and turbulent Pakistan. So the US is searching for a new loyal strategic partner and America knows that it is much better to maintain a good relationships with India than with China or Pakistan for the moment. However, loyalty is an unknown term for the US. As long as the US needs are requiresd something, it maintains a happy-go-relation with its partner, but when its needs are fulfilled the US simply dumps his its loyal partner as spent force. The author is a columnist and researcher.
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