There has been an almost 50 per cent increase in the volume of major conventional arms transfers over the past four years, reversing a downward trend after 1997. The USA and Russia were the largest suppliers in the five-year period 20022006, each accounting for around 30 per cent of global deliveries. Exports from European Union (EU) members to non-EU countries accounted for just over 20 per cent of global deliveries. Because of its very limited internal market, the Russian arms industry remains heavily dependent on exportsmost newly produced weapons in Russia are exportedto maintain an arms industry and fund development of new weapons and technology. This limits the possibility that Russia will exercise restraint in its arms exports. The arms industries of the USA and EU members are in general far less export dependent.
China and India remained the largest arms importers in the world. Also among the top 10 importers were five Middle Eastern countries. While much media attention was given to arms deliveries to Iran, mainly from Russia, deliveries from the USA and European countries to Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were significantly larger. Especially worrisome are deliveries of long-range conventional strike systems to these states and the effects this may have on regional stability.
Because the development of large weapon systems is becoming increasingly costly, nearly all countries have become or soon will become dependent on other countries for weapons or weapon technology. This could lead to mutual dependencyas in USEurope relationsor to one-sided dependency, as is the case for most developing countries. Some countries may be unwilling to accept dependency or be unable to access arms and technology. They may try, at high economic cost, to become autonomous in arms production or may focus on relatively cheap alternative weapons such as weapons of mass destruction, or war-fighting strategies such as terrorism and IT warfare.
The problem of controlling state supplies of weapons to rebel groups, while not new, was highlighted in 2006 by the arsenal acquired by Hezbollah from Iran and used in its war with Israel, and by serious breaches by state actors of the UN arms embargo on Somalia.
Transparency in arms transfers, which in the 1990s saw significant improvement, with more and better national export reports, has remained stagnant in the past few years.
SOURCE: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Military expenditure
World military expenditure in 2006 is estimated to have reached $1204 billion in current dollars. This represents a 3.5 per cent increase in real terms since 2005 and a 37 per cent increase over the 10-year period since 1997. Average spending per capita increased from $173 in 2005 to $184.
World military expenditure is extremely unevenly distributed. In 2006 the 15 countries with the highest spending accounted for 83 per cent of the world total.
The large increase in the USA's military spending is to a great extent due to the costly military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Most of the increase resulted from supplementary allocations in addition to the regular budget. Between September 2001 and June 2006, the US Government provided a total of $432 billion in annual and supplemental appropriations under the heading 'global war on terrorism'. This increase in US military spending has contributed to the rise in budget deficits, government debt and outlays on servicing these debts since 2001. Taking both immediate and long-term factors into account, the overall past and future costs until year 2016 to the USA for the war in Iraq have been estimated at $2267 billion.
In 2006 China's military expenditure continued to increase rapidly, for the first time surpassing that of Japan and hence making China the biggest military spender in Asia and the fourth biggest in the world. Amid intense discussions, Japan decided, for the fifth consecutive year, to reduce its military spending in 2006 and to focus its military budget on missile defence.
In a comparison of government spending priorities between samples of countries in different per capita income groups, the ratio of military spending to social spending was found to be highest in those countries with the lowest per capita incomes. However, between 1999 and 2003, the share of military expenditure in GDP stayed at a constant level in the high- and middle-income country sample and decreased somewhat in the low-income sample. At the same time social spending as a share of GDP increased in the high- and low-income groups and remained relatively stable in middle-income countries.
SOURCE: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
US F-16 sale to Pakistan come under scrutiny
United States exports of defence material to Pakistan including the previously approved plan to sell 36 F-16 fighter aircraft appear to be under review following General Pervez Musharraf's declaration of a state of emergency on 2 November.
The Pakistani government, however, said that it has "no news" regarding a US decision to review sales: a decision that may also affect an agreement regarding the sale of P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft.
US Pentagon Spokesman Bryan Whitman said on 5 November that the Department of Defence (DoD) would scrutinise its Foreign Military Sales programme.
Whitman said that all US military assistance to Pakistan was now on the table according to an American Forces Press Service article and a bilateral defence consultative meeting scheduled for 7 November has been postponed.
However, Whitman insisted that military co-operation along the border with Afghanistan would continue unabated and that it was "important to have a favourable resolution of this situation". He said, "as Pakistan has proven itself a valued ally in the fight against terrorism, it has received extensive financial support for its efforts from the US. All that stands to come under review in light of the current situation". Since 2001, Pakistan has received USD 9.6 billion in overall aid from Washington.
Tom Casey, Deputy Spokesman for the US Department of State, said on 5 November: "We are going to be reviewing our assistance to that country based not only in the light of what our legal obligations are, of course, but also on how this decision and the continuation of these kinds of measures will affect our overall bilateral relationship… it is hard to see how, if these measures [the state of emergency] remain in place, our relationship can remain the same."
His comments echo those made on 3 November by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who said that "the US has made clear that it does not support extra-constitutional measures because those measures would take Pakistan away from the path of democracy and civilian rule. And whatever happens, we will be urging a quick return to a constitutional order, we will be urging that the commitment to hold free and fair elections be kept and we will be urging calm on all the parties".
Pakistan's attempts to acquire F-16s have been fraught with difficulties. Deliveries of the aircraft, initially agreed in 1989, were suspended in 1990 following allegations from Washington that Pakistan was secretly producing nuclear weapons.
It was announced in March 2005 that the US would allow Pakistan to purchase the F-16 fighters; the change in policy is largely in recognition of Islamabad's support for, or at least compliance with, US foreign policy in the region. This was suspended again in November 2005 following the 8 October earthquake, which particularly afflicted parts of Kashmir, prompting a concentration of funding on humanitarian aid, relief work and reconstruction.
SOURCE: Jane's Defence weekly
Colombo confirms air force losses following LTTE attack on airbase
The Sri Lanka Air Force has confirmed that an attack by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) on its base at Anuradhapura on 22 October resulted in the loss of 20 per cent of items in its inventory.
Government and military officials reported that 21 Tamil Tigers from the LTTE's suicide unit 'The Black Tigers' attacked the base, 200 km north of the capital, Colombo, in the early hours of 22 October in a co-ordinated air and ground assault.
Local media quoted the Sri Lankan military as reporting the deaths of 14 government troops and 20 Tamil Tigers in the attack.
It is unclear how many aircraft took part in the raid, but the LTTE is known to operate two Czech-made Zlin Z 143 light aircraft.
Initially, the government played down the incident, saying that damage had been slight. The LTTE claimed to have destroyed eight aircraft, while the government oppositon, the United National Party, reported that the raid had destroyed 18 aircraft at a cost of nearly USD 60 million.
Sri Lankan Air Force sources have confirmed 23 aircraft were destroyed or damaged, including a Beechcraft 200 aircraft, Mi-24 helicopter gunships, Mi-17 troop transport helicopters, a Bell 212 helicopter and an unmanned aerial vehicle.
SOURCE: Jane's Defence weekly.
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