US gets tough with Iran
IT seems that President Obama's soft approach to Iran does not work with American public. In the Cairo speech on June 4 last year, he referred to Iran by its full name, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and said Islamic countries had been victimised by colonialism as well as the Cold War era struggle between the United States and the former Soviet Union. He pledged a "new beginning between the US and Muslims around the world." He urged America and the Islamic world to drop their suspicions of one another and forge new alliances to confront violent extremism and heal religious divides. However, one fact remains that Obama's oratory, which was so powerful in Cairo does not easily move Iran Undertaking reforms in America whose lawmakers are essentially centre-right is difficult. Most of them are instinctively opposed to government's intervention on social and financial issues, overtly religious and think that display of power of America is necessary to ensure freedom and democracy around the world. The recent National Tea Party Convention outside Nashville has demonstrated the power of grassroots of America's conservative trend and Sarah Palin, the former Republican Vice Presidential candidate has become the face of anti-administration "tea party" movement. She told the crowd of 1,100 in a hotel "America is ready for another revolution", prompting the first of several standing ovations. The unemployment rate soared to 10.2 % per cent, highest in 26 years and the jump into double-digit levels of unemployment has provided a reminder that economic recession is not over. Some economists hold the view that the stimulus fell far short of what was needed. Meanwhile the Democratic base has lost much of its passion partly because of the administration's soft-touch approach to financial crisis, which seemed to many like a betrayal of their ideals. Independent voters who had flocked to Obama last year shifted to the Republican candidates and the victory of the Republic to late Ted Kennedy's seat in the Senate in the Massachusetts is a very big political blow to the President. The Democrats lost its majority in the Senate at a critical moment when health care bill and climate bill are to be considered this year. The swing to the Republican Party will certainly be noted by moderate congressional Democrats facing re-election this November who may now be more reluctant to support the President on tough votes in Congress. All these factors seem to have weighed the Obama administration to be tough on Iran. The administration is accelerating the deployment of new defences against possible Iranian missile attacks in the Gulf, reportedly placing special ships off the Iranian coast and anti-missile systems in at least four Arab countries (such as Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait). Saudi Arabia already has similar equipment of its own. It may be recalled that during the administration of Bush, the US wanted to strengthen Egypt's ability to "address shared strategic goals" by giving US$13 billion worth of weapons. The goal is to contain influence of Iran and Syria in the Middle East and to lobby for Israel among Arab States to soften their attitude towards Israel. Saudi Arabia and five other Arab countries bought more than US$15 billion worth of advanced weapons from the US as a counterweight to Iran and Syria during the past two years. The President spoke of the shift in his State of Union address, warning of "consequences" if Iran continued to defy the UN demands to manufacture nuclear weapons. This strategy is aimed at the following: To increase pressure on Iran To avoid a sharp response from Iran because of the defensive nature of build up To show to Israel that there is no need for action for them Iran has ignored UN Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions over its refusal to suspend enrichment in exchange for trade benefits, or grant unfettered IAEA inspections meant to verify it has no clandestine nuclear arms programme. Last October, the West came up with a new proposal that Iran should ship the low-enriched uranium (about 1.200 kilograms) out of the country to the West or Russia for additional processing and eventual return in Iran as fuel rods for a civilian reactor. Although on 3rd February, Iran's president has said it is ready to send its enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment under a deal to ease concerns about its nuclear programme, deep suspicions remain with the US and allies on Iran's offer. Meanwhile on 7th February, Iran's President directed Iran's nuclear agency to enrich uranium up to 20%. Against the background, the US is reportedly going ahead with a proposal of new sanctions against Iran. Furthermore, on 4th February, Romania has agreed to host missile interceptors as part of a new US defence shield. The US scrapped a previous missile shield, based in Poland and the Czech Republic, which had infuriated Russia. Instead the new system would provide better defence from "the emerging threat" of Iranian short- and medium-range missiles, a US official said. The US administration's tough policy on Iran by imposing new sanctions has become complicated by its arms sales to Taiwan as announced on 29th January. Observers say China has been angry about the decision and could reject new UN sanctions on Iran. Hours before the announcement on Taiwan, the United States urged Beijing to help curb Iran's nuclear program. Observers believe that cooperation between China and the US on key international and regional issues will also inevitably be affected. China's increased clout is felt at a time when its economy looks set to overhaul Japan's and its military budget is surging year by year. China has become more assertive in world affairs and the US cannot expect that after arms sale to Taiwan it will be business as usual with China. Observers say that President Obama is in a bind. To be tough on Iran is popular with American public, but the global order has shifted in favour of China and the US cannot force China to go along with it. That is the reality in global power politics.
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