Sense of déjà vu in Pakistan
Photo: AFP
GENERALS ruled Pakistan for half the time since its independence in 1947. Civilians have ruled the country only for 27 years out of 62. Pakistan saw four periods of military rule, the last one beginning from 1999 and ending in 2008. The army first grabbed power in 1958 under General Ayub Khan a little over a decade after the independence. Second General Yahaya Khan later replaced Ayub Khan in 1969. There was a brief spell for six years when Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto served as President and Prime Minister. His government was thrown out by a third military coup led by General Zia ul-Haq who ruled from 1977 until he was killed in a mysterious plane crash in August 1988. From 1988 to 1997 Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif served as Prime Ministers. The fourth military takeover took place in October 1999 by General Musharraf who ousted the Nawaz Sharif civilian government which took power in 1997. General Musharraf had to resign under pressure from the US in August 2008. General Musharraf became the second longest-serving Army Chief after Zia ul-Haq. All civilian governments in Pakistan were weak because of their confrontational attitude towards the opposition political parties and people were fed up of all the corruption, nepotism and lack of good governance. The military, taking advantage of the people's sentiments, ousted routinely the unstable civilian governments with the people supporting them all the way. This time the civilian government of Zardari has been suffering from its fragility. The PPP and PML (N), the two largest parties in Pakistan, are deeply split on national issues. PPP is led by Bhutto's widower and President Asif Ali Zardari and PML (N) is led by former Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Zardari has needlessly antagonised his political opponents. He has linked himself to the Americans in ways that the military establishment has found both threatening and humiliating. A case in point is the Kerry-Lugar Aid Bill promising to triple spending on aid for Pakistan's poor to $7.5 billion over the next five years to be spent on democratic, economic and social development programmes. But conditions include a requirement that Pakistan shut down terrorist groups operating on its soil and ensure that the military do not interfere with civilian politics. The bill implicitly suggests about the need for stronger civilian oversight of the military including over promotions in the chain of command. The President, Asif Ali Zardari, has championed the bill, pitting himself against the army brass, opposition political parties and many Pakistani analysts and commentators. The legislation in Pakistan has cut such a wide swath that even civic leaders and lawyers who took to the streets two years ago against the military ruler offered no vocal support for the bill, presumably because the bill affects the Pakistani ego. It is reported that the military chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani is understood to have described the bill at a meeting of top military leaders on 7th October 2009 as "intrusive". In the statement, apparently aimed at the US, General Kayani is quoted as saying "Pakistan is a sovereign state and has all the rights to analyse and respond to the threat in accordance with her own national interests." The bill, rather than boost the civilian government's image, has laid bare the deteriorating relationship between the president and the military chief. Although the military chief Kayani has made clear that he supports democracy in Pakistan, his apparent distaste for the Zardari government is now barely disguised. The General reportedly met the President, the Prime Minister and afterwards, the Pakistan Foreign Minister was dispatched to Washington to tell the Obama administration that Pakistan had deep reservations about the intentions of the bill. The military is sending a message to the Pakistan and US governments about their dislike of limits of civilian control of the military. Furthermore, the military also wants to say that all militant groups in Pakistan are not "terrorists" and some of them are "freedom fighters" for Kashmir and the US has a responsibility to ensure a just solution on Kashmir because it has been the source of tensions between India and Pakistan. Although the Taliban is fighting very strongly in Afghanistan, their main game is to capture Islamabad. Pakistan is under assault from the Pakistani Taliban, allied with the Afghan Taliban and with Al-Qa'ida. It is also under assault from other Islamist and terrorist groups, many of which it originally created or funded (just as it was involved in the founding of the Afghan Taliban). The rift between civilian government and military leadership may not eventually help the US in combating terrorists' attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan as Talibans have found new strength, both in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and struck back more viciously than ever. Pakistan possesses 75 to 100 nuclear weapons and the deepest concern for the US and its allies is the fear of the Taliban gaining control of these nuclear weapons. At the moment, Pakistan's nuclear weapons are deemed safe. The nuclear warheads are kept separate from the weapons systems. The Americans have helped install a special system of locking and unlocking that would be extremely difficult for an outsider to operate. And the warheads are separate from the missiles. The current political environment in Pakistan evokes a sense of déjà vu. The Zardari government could hardly be more unpopular. Many blame him for creating troubles. The military establishment remains both revered and feared by Pakistanis. The political parties are seen as incompetent, indifferent, and corrupt and have done little to serve the people. Furthermore, the nationalist up-swell which restored the civilian government has dissipated and public are frustrated by the Zardari government in its failure in addressing national issues. Successive civilian governments have found themselves in similar positions in the past. Zardari may face criminal charges again after the expiry of the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) that protected him. Political tensions bubbled to the surface over the expiry of the NRO, promulgated by General Musharraf in October 2007. The Supreme Court on July 31 2009 set a November 28 deadline for the NRO to be approved by the parliament or else it would lapse. The government is too weak to win an extension. Last month the administration tabled the Ordinance in parliament but quickly withdrew it after sensing that the political opposition was too strong. On 9th November 2009, former military ruler Parvez Musharraf said about the Pakistani president who succeeded him last year: "Asif Zardari is a criminal and a fraud. He'll do anything to save himself. He's not a patriot and he's got no love for Pakistan. He's a third-rater." The former President reportedly wish to return and join politics in Pakistan and he has contacted Pakistan Muslim Leaque (Q) which supported him while he was in power. Furthermore, on 2nd December 2009, the Chief Justice of Pakistan ordered a hearing on December 7th on the amnesty which has been protecting the President and key aides from corruption cases until the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) expired, steering the nation towards uncertainty. The question on Pakistani minds is whether the unpopular civilian government can remain and fulfil its whole term. In the past the civilian governments were undone by their own vice and undercut by a powerful military. Familiar developments such as incompetent government, unpopular President, and a war have emerged. This military may remain silent but for how long is the question. The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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