Will Afghanistan witness stability in Karzai's second term ?
AFGHANISTAN president Hamid Karzai is faced with a great challenge in tackling the myriad problems of his country after he was sworn in as the president for the second term following a controversial election. He has come under mounting pressure from the Western nations and the United Nations to free his administration from massive corruption and other vice in one hand and bring stability in the war-torn nation on the other. Hamid Karzai wants more troops to fight the Taliban, who are now more active in some parts of the country. And President Obama has complied by promising an additional 30000 troops. The crucial question is will Karzai be able to deliver what is expected from him?
Hamid Karzai was declared president of Afghanistan for the second term following scrapping of the run-off elections by the election commission. This set at rest all speculations about the presidential polls in a country, which is already in tatters by war and other internal strife. The run-off election for a new president was scheduled for November 7, but the challenger former foreign minister Dr. Abdullah Abdullah withdrew from the second round of voting fearing repeat of "massive malpractices" that marred the elections on August 2. This left the election without any significance since the run-off polls was between only two top candidates. The election commission said it was scrapping the balloting after the challenger had withdrawn and declared Karzai as the automatic winner, apart from the reason that he had secured maximum votes in the elections. The curtain has now fallen on a tumultuous chapter in Afghanistan surrounding the presidential elections that raised a lot of dust because of a variety of reasons mainly allegations of massive fraud in the voting in favour of the incumbent president Karzai. But questions will obviously be raised whether this denouement of the much-awaited and much-talked Afghan presidential election will help strengthen democratic edifice in one hand and attain stability for the trouble-torn nation.
A run-off election in Afghanistan had been agreed by President Hamid Karzai, whose administration was accused by his rivals of August 20 presidential elections of massive malpractice and vote rigging. The United Nations and Western allies of Kabul were also convinced that the polls were not free and fair even though Hamid Karzai was insisting otherwise. Because of intense pressures at home and abroad, the president had announced that the embattled nation would have second round of polls on November 7 to determine who would be the president of the country. Indeed, the decision was welcomed since the August 20 voting was largely seen as influenced by the administration and supporters of the incumbent president. His main rival Dr. Abdullah has been clamouring for the run-off polls charging the president of large-scale irregularities in the balloting. Initially, Dr. Abdullah also expressed readiness for contesting the run-off polls, but later he backed out citing fears of "same experience" of August 20 polling. Thus, the decision from him came somewhat as a surprise as Western nations and the United Nations were keen for the second round of balloting. Dr. Abdullah might have smelled that the run-off polls were unlikely to give a verdict in his favour. Besides, the visit to Kabul by UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon might have also given him the signal that the world was in the favour of Karzai despite allegations against him of corruption and maladministration. The message was probably that Karzai has steered the country through difficult time since the drastic change of the Afghan scenario and he is need for coming years as the country is still grappling with various problems and it is necessary that he remain in the scene.
Afghan presidential elections, second since a sea-change has taken place in the political landscape following the toppling of the "Taliban" regime in 2001, was billed as a development that was expected to strengthen the democratic edifice of a country whose history of recent decades is replete with violent developments spilling blood all round. The country witnessed presence of foreign troops in large number in contrasting circumstances in one hand and internal infighting among various groups in a typical milieu of the Afghan scene on the other. The presence of foreign troops is nothing new in the country in changing circumstances and this seems to be a fait accompli for the nation.
The troops of the former communist giant Soviet Union remained in the country in the eighties to support their leftist Kabul government against their Islamic opponents aided by the United States and other Western countries. The Soviet troops left the embattled Afghanistan after ten long years without succeeding in their task and later the Soviet Union itself incidentally and rather unfortunately disintegrated. "Unfortunately" because its collapse had removed the bi-polar world character turning the United States into the only super power. The balance of power in the global scale now squarely rests with the United States often dubbed as the "Mega power". It is the United States that threw its entire weight behind the Islamic forces against the Soviet-backed Kabul governments. Paradoxically it sent troops to Afghanistan several years later to fight broadly the same Islamic forces albeit more radical in nature. Certainly, the dispatch of American and other western soldiers to Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 9/11 incidents in the United States was largely seen as justified and the soldiers still remain in the trouble-torn country. More than one hundred thousand soldiers are now fighting the opponents of the Karzai government as peace and stability still eludes the nation.
Definitely, Karzai is the key figure in the Afghan imbroglio for the past several years and has spared no efforts in leading the country through extremely tough phase. But his presidency has also seen countrymen getting disenchanted with him on variety of matters like rise of corruption in the higher echelons of the administration. Besides, violence and resistance to the government and its supporters also seem to be not slackening causing frustration among the people.
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah is an experienced person familiar with the nitty gritty of Afghan politics and characteristics as he was involved in different crucial phases. He was active during the Soviet-influenced period being close to legendary guerrilla commander Shah Ahmad Mosood, who later fought the radical "Talibans". Dr. Abdullah is also a widely renowned figure being the foreign minister and is seen as largely successful in his job. He is Tajik and from the south while Karzai is from north with influence on the Pasthuns. Their rivalry centering the elections has also opened the undesirable tensions between the south and the north among the ruling circles. A run-off election would have further widened this rift and increased acrimony further. The supporters of Afghanistan were clearly worried about such a development and now must be heaving sigh of relief over the "dignified back-out" of the challenger.
The United States and its allies have great stakes in Afghanistan and they have tried to reduce the differences and acrimony among the anti-Taliban base centering the presidential elections. President Barack Obama, who is under pressure from military commanders and opposition Republicans to dispatch more troops to Afghanistan to fight the Taliban insurgents, has congratulated Karzai for a second five-year term in the office, but has called for curbing on corruption and work for a healthier society in Afghanistan, which has received billions of assistance in the last few years. French president Nicholas Sarkozy has echoed the same thoughts as the Western leaders, cautioning Karzai for a better performance in the future.
Karzai is now faced with a greater challenge to deliver the goods and can ill-afford failures particularly in two fronts corruption and effective fight against the Talibans. In his first speech after being announced as the president for the new term, he has vowed to eradicate corruption and also offered an olive branch to the Talibans, who, however, are unlikely to respond to his gestures. The severity and complexities of the Afghan tangle is such that Karzai is entering a more crucial and difficult phase. Certainly, under him social and economic progress is discernible, but a weakening and corrupt administration, non-cooperation from Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and his supporters, and combating the ever increasing threats of the insurgents pose bigger challenge for him despite enjoying the support of his Western backers, who are not fully convinced by the way he has been elected as president. US foreign secretary Hillary Clinton and British foreign secretary David Miliband were present among others at the swearing-in ceremony of Karzai in Kabul's presidential palace, but both made it clear that they expected better governance from him in the second term.
Meanwhile, differences exist within his Democratic Party over the need and justification of more soldiers there. House of representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi had questioned the wisdom of sending more troops as she finds the entire Afghan exercise not much worthwhile for the interest of the American people. Considering all these factors, it can be safely concluded that Hamid Karzai is faced with bigger challenge in the second tenure and he can ill-afford to fail much although the difficulties are quite gigantic.
The author is a freelancer.
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