US pressure grows on Iran
Photo: AFP
IRAN has ignored the UN Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions over its refusal to suspend enrichment in exchange for trade benefits, or grant unfettered IAEA inspections meant to verify it has no clandestine nuclear arms programme. Last October, the West came up with a new proposal that Iran should ship the low-enriched uranium (about 1.200 kilograms) out of the country to the West or Russia for additional processing and eventual return in Iran as fuel rods for a civilian reactor. The Director General of the UN watchdog IAEA on 2nd November urged Iran to accept the proposal, which he said was "aimed to engage Iran in a series of measures that could build confidence and trust." British Foreign Secretary David Milliband emerged from a meeting in Moscow on 2nd November with his counterpart Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavarov, to declare "we both want to see a prompt response" from Iran. On 14th November, both President Obama and President Medvedev of Russia, on the sidelines of APEC summit in Singapore, expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's response to a nuclear offer made by world powers, raising the prospect that sanctions might be the next step in the West's ongoing efforts to rein in Tehran's nuclear ambition. Both the Presidents discussed a time-table for imposing sanctions if Tehran and the West did not agree soon on the proposal. President Obama, sitting next to the Russian President, reportedly said: "Unfortunately so far at least, Iran appears to have been unable to say yes to what everyone acknowledges is a creative and constructive approach. We are running out of time with respect to that approach." Russian President Medvedev also alluded to running out of patience. He said that while a dialogue was continuing, "we are not completely happy about its pace. If something does not work, there are other means to move the process further." In a report on 15th November, the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA said that Iran's acknowledgement of the nuclear plant near Qum was long overdue and "reduced confidence" that Tehran was not concealing other sites. Iran's Ambassador to IAEA Ali Ashghar Soltanieh in response to IAEA's concern dismissed it as an unfair political judgment. Iran's rejection On 18th November, Iran rejected the West's proposal on the nuclear issue and suggested simultaneous exchange of Iran's low-enriched uranium for fuel rods. The deal would have resulted in Iran shipping about 70 percent of its low-enriched uranium stockpile to Russia and France by the end of the year, where it would be further processed into a form usable in a Tehran research reactor. The bottom line of rejection seems to be that Iran does not trust the world powers and thinks that if Iran delivers enriched uranium, it may not receive the fuel rods from them for its nuclear reactor. To put pressure on Iran to accept the new deal, it is also reported on 16th November that Russia will not be able to launch the opening of the new nuclear reactor it is building at Bushehr in southern Iran by the end of the year as planned due to "technical reasons". Iran thinks that Russia's decision to delay the opening of the reactor is "political". The US on 20th November hoped that Iran would change its mind and accept a confidence-building nuclear deal as it would meet again with five other world powers to discuss steps to end Tehran's defiance. IAEA's outgoing Director General El Baradei also expressed that Iran's rejection might not be the last world on the issue. Why Iran rejects the deal? It is reported that the deep division among the Iranians that emerged after the Presidential election has reportedly complicated, if not undermined, the ability to resolve the issue of nuclear issue with the West. From the moment Ahmadinejad was first elected as President four years ago, he denounced the reform movement for having cooperated with the West, in particular, charging that President Khatami undermined Iran's security, pride and national rights by agreeing to suspend enrichment for two years. Although President Ahmadinejad said that Iran should accept the deal proposed by the West, the President's deeply alienated reformist and conservative political leaders alike do not agree with this view after the disputed presidential election. Some analysts say Ahmadinejad and his disputed election is the centre of Iran's problem. Led by Moussavi, a former presidential candidate at the June election, Iran's reformers have been looking to take a page from Ahmadinejad's own playbook, using the nuclear card to try to score political points. The pragmatic conservatives led by the Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and his brother Sadeq Larijani, the head of judiciary, are now doing to Ahmadinejad what he has done to his political opponents for yearsundermining him by charging that the deal violates Iran's inalienable rights and that the West is trying to "cheat" Iran. They are not eager to see the President taking credit for resolving the nuclear issue and thawing relations with the US, analysts said. On 14th November Speaker Ali Larijani reportedly said that the US steps to renew sanctions showed that President Obama was no better than his predecessor, former President Bush. Larijani's statement was followed by chants of "Death to America" among lawmakers in the parliament, according Reuters. A political scientist at Syracuse University Mehrazad Boroujerdi, reportedly said: "Since the 1979 Revolution it is rare for the political elite to disagree so openly with an issue of this significance." Alireza Nader, an Iran expert with the Washington office of RAND Corporation, a research organisation, reportedly stated: "Even a potential deal that serves Iran's overall interests can be scuttled due to Iran's highly factionalized political environment." Analysts said that the Supreme Leader Khamanei would not be willing to risk undermining his already damaged credibility with reformists and conservatives by accepting a deal that many argue would undermine Iran's interests. Meanwhile it is reported that Tehran has held aerial defence war games for five days from 22nd November, covering an area of some 600,000 square kilometres in north, south-western Iran and parts of south and central Iran to protect its nuke sites. Iran's power structure Under the 1979 Constitution, Iran is ruled by a system known as "Velayet e-Faqih" (The Rule of the Supreme Jurists). But the Constitution also stipulates that the people are the sources of power and every four years Presidential and Parliamentary elections are held. In power structure, the apex is Supreme leader. The Leader is chosen by the clerics who make up the Assembly of Experts. The Supreme Leader, currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appoints the head of the judiciary, six of the members of the powerful Guardian Council, the commanders of all the armed forces, Friday prayer leaders and the head of radio and TV. He also confirms the president's election. And the Supreme leader has the final say on national issues. Then there is the parliament, the Majlis, with its powerful speaker Ali Larijani. And former President Hashemi Rafsanjani continues to be influential partly through his chairmanship of two important institutions, the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts. The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments