Russian pipeline to Germany raises concern in Eastern Europe
RUSSIA assumes its new role in world politics through supply of natural gas to energy-deficit states. Recently China and Russia signed a natural gas deal on 13th October for the supply of up to 70 billion cubic metres of gas per year from Siberia.
Russia supplies Europe with 28% per cent of its natural gas. Currently Russian natural gas has to be piped through Eastern Europe to reach Western Europe.
If Russia shuts off gas on countries of Eastern Europe for whatever reasons, the action is felt in the more powerful and wealthier countries to the West where it touches off loud protests to the embarrassment of Russia.
The new proposed gas pipeline, by traveling more than 1200 kilometres or 750 miles along the bed of the Baltic Sea, from Vyborg, Russia to Greifswald, Germany, bypassing former Soviet satellite states, will give Russia a separate supply line to the West.
The pipeline is a joint venture of Gazprom and a trio of German and Dutch companies. Now with the pipeline looking inevitable, France has decided to jump to join the consortium through Gaz de France, otherwise they may have to buy natural gas from a German broker.
The French-German competition for business with Russia on gas seems to illustrate Russia's political pre-eminence in Europe.
The new pipeline planned will not create protests from Western Europe if Russia shuts off gas to Eastern Europe because it will connect Russia directly with Germany and offers clear energy benefits to Western Europe.
Germany's Chancellor Merkel's endorsed the pipeline stating that it would benefit the whole European Union.
Wedge between Western and Eastern Europe:
The proposed line, according to Eastern European states, is driving a political wedge between Western and Eastern European countries and within members of the European Union.
The Eastern European states, which were during the Cold War tied with the Soviet Union, fear that it could lead to Russia's domination of the former Soviet bloc and the proposed pipeline will change the dynamics of Eastern European relations with Russia.
That is not the way Russia views it. Russian gas giant Gazprom takes the view that the $10.7 billion project of the new pipeline is purely commercial and not strategic.
Poland wants talks with Germany and Russia about Baltic Sea gas pipeline project steered by Russian giant Gazprom. Poland needs to understand why the Russians are holding out for this project under the Baltic, which is three times more expensive than a gas pipeline crossing White Russia and Poland, or Latvia, Lithuania and Poland..
Matthias Warnig, the Chief of Nord Stream and a former East German, said Eastern Europe's fears were unfounded. Europe needs additional gas to compensate for declining out from the North Sea and Russia is the best option to get it.
It is noted that the European Parliament and the European Commission approved the pipeline as early as 2000 and both confirmed their commitments in 2006.
Eastern European states are not convinced with such line of arguments. They say that Russia has in the past used "gas diplomacy" with some Eastern European states to demonstrate its power and a research organization affiliated with the Swedish Defence Ministry has identified 55 politically linked disruptions in the energy supply of Eastern Europe since the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Last January, Russia shut down a pipeline that crossed Ukraine, ostensibly over a dispute with Ukraine on pricing and tariffs. The ability to shut off one pipeline or the other makes shutoffs to Eastern Europe more likely, said Zbigniew Brzezinski, the US national Security Adviser in the former Carter administration. He called the pipelines a grand Russian initiative to "separate Central Europe from Western Europe insofar as dependence on Russian energy is concerned."
In an open letter to President Obama last spring, 23 former Central European heads of state and intellectuals including a firmer Czech President Vaclam Havel, and a former Polish President Lech Walsea, pointed out that after the war in Georgia in August 2008, Russia declared a sphere of "privileged interests" that could include their countries.
Eastern European irks Russia:
Some analysts, on the other hand, say that some of the Eastern European states seem to anger Russia by bringing the US into Russia's backyard. Some of the states not only wish to join NATO but also to the European Union, even though there are divisions of opinion within the people of the countries.
For example, Georgia and Ukraine have lined up for memberships of NATO and EU. Poland the Czech Republic readily concluded agreements with the Bush administration for installation of scientifically unproven and costly defence missile shield in their countries and in September President Obama has scrapped the plan to repair relations with Russia.
Summing up:
Some analysts believe in the days of free-market capitalism, the considerations of Eastern European take a back seat in the struggle over resources for national interests of Western Europe. Lord Palmerston's dictum that there are no permanent friends or eternal enemies and what are permanent is national interests that need to be vigorously pursued seems to be true.
There should be no illusions about becoming totally free of dependency as gas is a global commodity in a global business environment. Pierre Noel, a professor of Cambridge University and a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations reported said : "It is an open, competitive, capitalist economy. People build the pipes they want to build."
Eastern Europe should have the courage to realise that Russia is at least as dependent on Europe as vice versa.
The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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