Pakistan: Into the vortex of violence
PAKISTAN is descending into ever-increasing chaos and violence with no end in sight. Things were looking better about a month back with the army operation winding down in Swat and the IDPs returning to their homes. Pakistan Army's operational success in Swat and Malakand and the killing of Baitullah Mehsud, the Head of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in a US drone attack appeared to signal a turning point on the war against the FATA militants. However, the euphoria was short-lived. Hakimullah Mehsud, Baitullaha's successor, is proving to be an even more aggressive and audacious terrorist. The attacks on the GHQ, the heart of Pakistan military, and a few days later in the PAF Base, Kamra proved that the Taliban can plan and execute a complex suicide attack at a time and place of their own choosing. More worrying signs are the emerging entente between the Taliban and other militant organizations, such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP). Once nurtured by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) to conduct terrorist operations in Kashmir and elsewhere in India, they are now increasingly turning against their mentor since the government, under increasing external pressure, clamped down on their operations. The new coalition called "Punjabi Taliban" could make the task of combating insurgency even more difficult now that the Punjabi dominated Army will be fighting in their backyard with people from their own linguistic clan. The operation in South Waziristan has so far, from the official point of view, been a success. Army has been capturing towns and villages previously under the Taliban control. The fall of Kotkai, the birth place of Hakimullah Mehsud, on 28 October was given wide coverage. So was the fall of Sararogha or Kaniguram, tiny hamlets that have questionable strategic value in fluid guerilla warfare. Meanwhile, in a sensational interview from the frontline, Hamid Mir, a noted TV journalist, revealed that the Army is, in fact, bombing largely deserted villages and killing innocent civilians caught in the cross-fire. He claimed that the main body of the militants melted into higher mountains and deeper gorges, leaving small bodies to fight rearguard skirmishes and lay booby traps and IEDS, which are the ones killing most of the soldiers. The ultra-right TV strategist Zaid Hamid, along with pro-military media, has termed Hamid Mir a CIA Agent, but Mir is the only one able to give independent eye-witness account of what has been going on in South Waziristan. It appears that Pakistan Army is neither well-trained nor well-equipped to fight the kind of warfare that it is now engaged in. Their focus had always been the Indian border, where a bulk of the forces is still stationed. Force structuring, equipment procurement and training have always been India-centric. As can be seen on TV, Pakistani soldiers, without flak jackets, traveling in open Toyota mini-trucks are becoming easy targets of Taliban ambush. Shalwar-Kameez and chappal (Sandal) wearing Frontier Constabulary (FC) are a pathetic sight at best. Tanks and artillery, although good for a show of force, could in fact, be bottled up in the mountainous terrain. The same can be said of the air force operations in the mountains. The probability of civilian losses, collateral damage in military parlance, is huge. Indiscriminate bombing, rocketing and artillery shelling could turn an otherwise passive population hostile towards the military, and Hamid Mir in his interview confirmed it. It appears that bulk of the $11 billion that the military received from the US since 2002, were diverted to procure tanks, fighter aircraft, submarines and missiles, besides nuclear weapons all designed to fight off an Indian attack, but of little use against the militants. On the psychological front too the task is quite daunting. The military was motivated for half a century to declare Jihad against the Hindus across the border. It must be quite confusing for a Pakistani soldier to meet his adversary in the field shouting his own battle cry "Allahu Akbar." Each side is accusing the other of 'Fitnah', creating chaos and disorder in the society. The lines drawn are not clear as they were in the past wars. The military operations could secure the ground for sometime, but unless firm civilian government institutions are restored immediately, the militants are going to return as soon as the army leaves. This happened in Swat, where soon after the claim of victory, large number of soldiers were killed in ambush. That the militancy is motivated by extremist Wahabi/Deobandi ideology rather than Pashtun nationalism is evident from the targets chosen by the Talibans schools, especially girls schools are being demolished. The bomb attack in Peshawar "Meena Bazar" on 28 October '09 that killed mostly women and children was deliberately chosen because the customers were mostly female. The Chairman of the Shoppers' Association was warned few days earlier against females coming to shop, even if they were in Burqa. The version of Islam that the Taliban wants to impose is passed loud and clear. Indiscriminate bombing has created a wave of panic and despondency in a country already suffering from shortage of essential commodities. Parents are worried about their wards' safety and so are the shoppers, bankers and industrialists. People avoid passing beside military garrisons and check posts, lest they are caught in another bomb attack. Life in big cities has come to a limbo. Government's approval rating, especially of the President, is perilously low. While the government claims to be ardent in fighting the militancy, it is not taken seriously at home or abroad. Jamaat-e-Islami, the main religious party, calls for an end of all operations against the Taliban and resumption of dialogue with them. There are many who believe that Pakistan is fighting USA's proxy war. On the other hand, US anxiety is well ventilated when Ms. Clinton publicly said, "I find it hard to believe that nobody in your government knows where they (Al-Qaeda) are and could not get them if they really wanted to. May be they are not getable, I don't know." There are others, conspiracy theorists, who claim the whole episode is a part of the Hindu-Jewish-Christian conspiracy to break up Pakistan the only nuclear-armed Muslim state. Pakistan, hailed in the sixties as a model for the developing world, is, forty years later, the "9th most likely failed-state in the world", a painful payback for millions toiling hard for a better future. While the picture is bleak, there is no room for despair. A failed Pakistan or Afghanistan will have a domino effect which will engulf us all. We need to join Ms. Clinton when she assured her Pakistani audience by saying, "It is not your war only, it's our war too." India needs to publicly assure Pakistan that their border would remain inviolable and that they will cooperate with Pakistan in their war against militancy. The NATO forces operating in Afghanistan need to tighten the noose on their side. With the Afghan election circus now over, President Obama need to quickly dispatch additional troops as advised by Gen. McChrystal. The US need to increase logistic supply to Pakistan, such as attack helicopters, armoured personnel carriers (APC), night fighting gears, intelligence and monitoring equipment, laser guided rockets etc. If outright transfer is not possible, the equipment could be on lease for use in the war against militants only. In the end, the onus is on the Pakistani government who need to come up with a long-term solution. There is no substitute to better governance for the people, especially the poor and downtrodden in FATA. The government needs to legislate to merge FATA with the NWFP administration. It needs to scrap colonial regulations that severely curbs human rights and thwart human progress in the region. It needs to replace corrupt and oppressive political agent and Sardari system with popularly elected local government and rule of law. They need to set up special economic zones to create employment opportunities for people. The government could invite NGOs from countries such as Bangladesh (BRAC is already there) to reach the desperately poor people, especially women, with educational, health and employment opportunities. The government's attempt to create irregular Lashkar, local militias, is likely to backfire; those need to be disbanded before they turn into another Taliban. Public education system throughout Pakistan is poor, but in FATA it is in shambles. Modern education, even modern Islamic education is Taliban's biggest fear, as seen in the bombing of Islamic University in Islamabad on 20 October '09. School bombing has not only destroyed the infrastructures, but thousands of students, especially females are missing the schools, which is exactly what the Taliban wanted. The government as well as the donors needs to come up in a big way to reverse the situation. In the end, corruption is at the heart of the problem. Unless a relatively corruption free government could function in Pakistan, nothing else will work. Politicians and policy makers must present before the people a Pakistan that is far better than what the Taliban could promise. The author is a freelancer.
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