Bhutto - Musharraf deal
The return of 54-years-old Benazir Bhutto, former prime minister of Pakistan, from self-exile on 18 October was marred by bomb attacks and bloodbath and raises the question: who was behind these acts? Will the current political equation be result oriented? Both leaders being archenemies having personal animosity, it is beclouded for the moment with Musharraf having an edge. Involvement of fundamentalist and suspicion of certain elements within the Pakistan ruling establishment might be behind the bid to kill Bhutto and should not be disregarded. Bhutto's husband Asif Ali Zardari, told ARYONE World Television, "I blame the government for the blasts. It is the work of the intelligence agencies." Both Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz, Prime Minister of Pakistan, asked Bhutto to defer homecoming as she faced a threat from pro-Taliban militants, especially rebel leader Baitullah Mehsud, who warned that the suicide bombers would be waiting to 'receive' Ms Bhutto. Instead, Bhutto disclosed that, before arriving in Pakistan she had written to Musharraf naming "three people and more" who she claimed wanted to kill her. "I wrote that letter to put things on record in case I was assassinated", she said. But she refused to reveal the three names, claiming, "I have already said too much." Ms Bhutto's sycophantic support of US foreign policy and US-led war earned the enmity of the fundamentalist groups in Pakistan. They publicly threatened to assassinate her. Militants see Bhutto's return to Pakistan politics as a Western-backed coup against Islamists in Pakistan. Militant leader Baitullah Mehsud had instructed pro-al-Qaeda cells in Karachi to kill her for three major offenses against the Islamists, which he listed as: - She is the only opposition politician who supported the military attack earlier this year on Islamabad's Lal Masjid (Red Mosque), a hotbed of Islamist radicalism, and she continues to condemn the Lal Masjid ideologues; - She has stated that she would allow incursions by US forces into Pakistan in pursuit of Osama bin Laden; - She has stated that she would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to question Dr A Q Khan, the former leading nuclear scientist accused of passing Pakistani nuclear technology to anti-Western countries. Haji Omar, a Taliban commander in Waziristan, told Reuters: "She has an agreement with America. We will carry out attacks on Benazir Bhutto as we did on General Pervez Musharraf." But one of Mehsud's associates in the lawless North West Pakistan Frontier denied Taliban involvement, saying: 'The government's secret agencies are involved in it. This was an effort to provoke common people and create hatred against the Taliban." At this stage, no organization has claimed responsibility. In an interview with Paris Match magazine only few hours after the bombings Ms Bhutto had said, "The Talebs and the Islamists extremists cannot act alone. They can't commit their suicide attacks from a mountain cave. They need logistics, food, weapons and someone to supervise them." She told the magazine that she knew "exactly" who wanted to kill her former officials from the regime of the late General Muhammad Zia ul-Haq, who overthrew her father 30 years ago and oversaw the trial that ended in his execution. "We should purge these elements still present in our secret services," she said. "Many of them took retirement but have been re-hired. Today they have a lot of power and I represent a danger to them: if I bring back democracy to the country, they will lose their influence." Bhutto has a turbulent relationship with Pakistan. Her father, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, was a former prime minister executed in1979 by the military regime of Zia ul Haq. Bhutto was elected twice as prime minister, but both times was deposed on charges of corruption by the military. She went into self exile in 1999 after corruption charges were leveled against her and her associates. Pakistan has been in political maelstrom in recent months as opposition to Musharraf has gathered pace and radical Islamist forces toughened their control in parts of the country, especially in Waziristan. Mushraff has responded to the situation by entering into a political swap under the thumbs-up of US with Bhutto. That saw to it that Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) did not oppose his re-election as president. In return, Musharraf dropped the corruption cases against Bhutto and her coterie, allowing her to return home and in all likelihood become the next prime minister. Bhutto returned to Pakistan to lead her political party PPP for the election due to be held on January 2008. She is also a proffered choice of EU and US for the run-up, but there could be barriers for her to become prime minister for the third time. On October 5, General Pervez Musharraf promulgated a National Reconciliation Ordinance under strong US pressure. Under the ordinance, all charges against current and former lawmakers who have been accused of corruption were dropped. This paved the way for Musharraf's re-election as president and a political settlement with Bhutto which, after Musharraf's giving up his post as chief of the military, would result in a civilian-based, pro-Western consensus government - or so Washington hopes. In return, Bhutto's PPP did not join other opposition parties in opposing Musharraf's stratagem. The deal between Mushrraf and Bhutto was so quick and sudden that even the PPP leaders were unable to defend. Government ministers too were taken by surprise, and when Asia Times Online asked Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kusuri about the deal, he admitted that it had been made under American pressure. But, the Supreme Court is considering challenges to the National Reconciliation Ordinance and thus Bhutto's amnesty, but she must find a way around the constitution's ban on anyone serving more than two terms as prime minister. Bhutto also faces concerted opposition from within the military and the ruling military-sponsored party, the PML (Q), which will inevitably lose power and privileges in any power-sharing deal. Musharraf's own re-election is under challenge as the country's constitution bars the president from holding the post of army commander at the same time. The current Emergency is to preempt the ruling by the Pak Supreme Court in this matter that was likely to have gone against President Musharraf. According to recent polling by the US-based International Republican Institute, only 28 percent of Pakistanis regard Bhutto as the best leader for the country, a fall of 4 percent from the last poll. By contrast, support for Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted as prime minister by Musharraf in 1999, has jumped by 15 points to 36 percent. Unlike Bhutto, he has opposed any deal with Musharraf. This poll shows just how fragile Pakistani politics has become. Bhutto, Musharraf, Sharif none have any significant base of solid political support. Each has presided over growing social inequality and resorted to anti-democratic methods to retain power. In one way or another, all have supported the Bush administration's "war on terrorism" and the US occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, which are deeply unpopular in Pakistan. Mushrraf's popularity is waning and the military is unable to defeat the Islamist fundamentalist. The Bush administration capitalized on this situation for which it had been waiting; it coaxed and pressed the military strongman to reach a power-sharing deal with Bhutto in order to intensify a security crackdown on Islamist organizations, particularly in the Pashtun tribal areas, such as Waziristan on the Afghan-Pakistani border. Hundreds of people, including civilians, have died in fierce clashes between the military and Islamist militants in the border region. The bomb attack on Bhutto was condemned around the world, from India to China, by Russia and the United States. The White House, which wheedled Bhutto's power-sharing deal with Musharraf, was outraged. "Extremists will not be allowed to stop Pakistanis from selecting their representatives through an open and democratic process," said Gordon Johndroe, President Bush's foreign affairs spokesman. Speaking at the European Union summit in Lisbon, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown sent his condolences for the tragedy. "The message must go out that we will not tolerate this terrorist violence. We will give support to the Pakistani authorities in dealing with those terrorists who caused the bombings," he said. "We will support at all times the attempts by the Pakistani people to re-establish democracy in their country." Musharraf, who seized power in a coup in 1999, has been unwilling to give up control of the army, which is his only real source of power. He finally yeilded to Bhutto's demand that he handover command of the military, but only after he is successfully installed for a second five-year term as president. Like any dictator, Musharraf is unlikely to accept a purely bedecked ceremonial puppet role. The bomb attack on Bhutto is the tip of an iceberg which, far from bringing peace and democracy in Pakistan, is likely to open up a new landscape of political unrest and instability. The author is a Columnist and Researcher.
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