Peace eludes South Caucasus
On 12th August, Russia's Prime Minister's visit to Abkhazia - a break-away territory recognized as an independent state by Moscow - is a signal that Russia is going to consolidate its hold on the territory. It may be recalled that Moscow recognized both Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states after Georgia used force to claim sovereignty over break-away South Ossetia last year. Both the territories - Abkhazia and South Ossetia - share borders with Russia and are strategically significant for Russia. Abkhazia opens up to the Black Sea. During the visit, Prime Minister Putin promised to spend around US$465 million (twice the size of Abkhazia's GDP) to build Russian military bases on its soil to fortify its border with Georgia. Russia's Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, who accompanied with the Prime Minister, said that Moscow would station 3,600 troops in Abkhazia, where 1,000 Russian border guards are already deployed. The Abkhazians have welcomed the Russian move to prevent future conflict with Georgia. The steps seemed to have sealed any option for negotiated peace settlement in the region. During the time of former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, there was a gentleman's agreement by the US that NATO would not be expanded to the disadvantage of Russia. It meant that NATO would not expand to the borders of Russia. At the heart of the problem lies the fact that this very agreement with former Soviet Union was violated by the US when the Bush administration supported Georgia to be a part of NATO, while Russia did not approve the intrusion of NATO at its underbelly in Georgia. Furthermore, the US and the Western allies find themselves at a loss as to how to deal with resurgent Russia. To please Russia, the West accommodated Russia as a member of G-8 club. At the same time, the US wants to install missile defence shield surveillance equipment in the Czech Republic and Poland (former members of Soviet Union's Warsaw Pact). On 15th August 2008 the US signed a missile defence agreement with Poland. It seems that the US and its allies are blowing cold and hot air at the same time with Russia. However, the Obama administration is reviewing its policy of missile defence shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Georgia's former President Shevardnadze's decision in 1992 to allow Russia into South Ossetia as part of the peacekeeping force has complicated the issues regarding South Ossetia. Furthermore, Georgia's use of force and refusal to contemplate and reconciliation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia (breakaway areas of Georgia) was a political blunder. Therefore, a game of balance of power between the US and Russia is taking place to influence political contours in Georgia and the pro-US Georgia's President Saakasvili has been sucked in. Mikhaeil Saakasvili was naïve enough to believe that he could take on Russia on the issue of South Ossetia. His American-trained officers commenced military operations to integrate South Ossetia with Georgia on the very day when all world leaders focused their eyes on the opening of Olympics in Beijing (8th August 2008). He hopelessly miscalculated the situation in South Ossetia. The use of force last year by Georgia has led Russia to recognize both Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries, and everyone knows that underneath, Kosovo's recognition as an independent country from Serbia is not far from Russia's mind in according recognition to the territories. It seems that nothing concrete is on the table between Russia and the US to restore peace in the region. During the recent trip to the region, US Vice-President Joe Biden reportedly stated that there was no military solution to Georgia's conflict with its break-away territories - Abkhazia and South Ossestia. Georgia's use of force has dramatically changed the scenario. It was reported in the media that Washington had advised the Georgian pro-American President not to take military operations in South Ossetia because Russians would be immediately involved. He reportedly did not listen to their advice and believed that the US would assist him to repel the retaliatory attack of Russia. The stark reality was that friendly states of Georgia did not want to spend 'blood and treasure' when the risks were too high and vital national interests were not involved. In this instance no NATO member state including the US wanted to pick a fight with Russia on its door step on behalf of Georgia. Currently there is a security vacuum in the region. Neither the UN nor OSCE (Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe) has any plans to address the security issues. The EU monitoring mission which was deployed to implement the ceasefire agreement operates on the Georgian side of the border. Russian defence commentator Colonel Viktor Litovkin sums up the perception of Russia about the West in the following words: "NATO has deviated from its original charter and assumed responsibility on a global scale for everything that happens. The West looks as if it is imposing its ideology on others, just as the former Soviet Union did. Fortunately we have recovered from this disease, but the Bush Administration has now caught it." The reality is that both Abkhazia and South Ossetia would not accept Georgia's sovereignty over them. Russia is also unlikely to withdraw its recognition or presence of both the territories. The real question is whether the West has any leverage on Russia to agree to any form of co-existence with Georgia that does not equate to their full independence. At present such expectations are grim.
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