US firm hopes to build quake predictor

A US-based aerospace firm is working to develop a system to predict earthquakes a fortnight ahead of occurrence and expects to put the mechanism into operation in the next three to five years, an engineer of the company said in Dhaka yesterday.

Forecasts will be based on satellite infrared signalling of the earth's movement and readings of high-tech sensors implanted in the ground, Jon Pineau, a senior space systems engineer of the firm, Stellar Solutions, told a select group of journalists at the American Center.

He said QuakeFinder, a research project of Stellar Solutions to develop the technology for detection of electromagnetic earthquake precursors, had found that the earthquake precursors occurred eight times before the actual quake struck.   

The analysis of noises and pre-earthquake human and animal behaviours will also be used to design the forecast system that will undergo validation (trial) for the next three to five years to make sure the forecast is correct, he added.

So, it will be based on three different phenomena -- physical properties that seem to give an indication of a possible earthquake, scientific theory, and the data that produce a dependable signal of earthquake precursors, Jon explained.

"We are optimistic but still in the research phase and repeated validations of the detection system by authorities like US Geological Survey would put it into operation in the practical field by and by," he said.

Jon, who promotes international space missions of Stellar Solutions but does not work directly with QuakeFinder, claimed that the sensors were working fairly well within a 10-mile radius on the California fault line, in Greece, Peru, Chile, Taiwan, and Sumatra.

QuakeFinder is working on developing wide-range sensors to efficiently detect the earthquake precursors, he said, adding that a sensor presently cost $35,000 to $50,000.

Separately, noted seismologist Prof Syed Humayun Akhter told The Daily Star that dedicated organisations like Washington-based Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology and the US Geological Survey had not yet devised an earthquake forecasting system.

Neither has Japan, despite a decade-long research, simply because it is not yet possible to forecast when strain energy building up between two locked tectonic plates will release, he said. However, the location of a probable earthquake is already calculated with the earth's ground deformity with the help of Global Positioning System and satellite images, he said.               

Experts apprehend that Bangladesh stands at the crossroads of a devastating earthquake with above 7-magnitude on the Richter scale because of geological position, tectonic setup and seismic history.

Jon Pineau came on a week-long Bangladesh tour at the invitation of Engineering Students' Association of Bangladesh and the US embassy in Dhaka to speak to would-be engineers.